US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.
Fed cut 25bp plus $40bn/month T-bill buys. BOE set to cut, BOJ to hike; EM MPCs in focus. $52bn tech investment in India; IMF okays $1.2bn for Pakistan. Chile elects Kast; Vietnam FDI 5y high; ratings mixed (Oman up, Hungary down).
The results of the leading e-commerce Chinese companies highlight the importance of active management in EM equities. Argentina and the IMF sent positive signals towards a new agreement.
Argentina’s government coalition received only one-third of the votes in mid-term nationwide elections. Inflation rose further in Brazil as the current political-economic juncture rhymes with 2002.
The RBA, Fed and BoE flip-flopped back to a dovish stance while the CNB and NBP hiked policy rates by a larger magnitude than expected. In contrast with DM, EM central banks are ahead of the curve in the task of controlling inflation.
Manufacturing PMIs were stronger than expected in Indonesia, India, Malaysia and Thailand (snippets). The front end of global DM curves widened significantly, leading to further “bear” flattening across global yield curves (Global backdrop).
Today we will be talking about the post-pandemic macro-economic environment. In particular, the outlook for global inflation and how Central banks should react to it.
The Central Bank of Russia hiked its policy rate by more than expected as Governor Elvira Nabiullina prioritised anchoring inflation expectations, leading to a strong performance across Russian assets.
The IMF upgraded its 2021 growth forecast for Emerging Market (EM) economies and downgraded Developed Markets (DM). JP Morgan announced Egypt and Ukraine are joining the main local currency bond index in Q1-2022.
A number of senior politicians had their financial affairs exposed by the release of the Pandora Papers, while the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, is under pressure after a report unveiled minor irregularities.
Emerging Markets (EM) Manufacturing PMI converged towards Developed Markets (DM). Brazilian exporters are hoarding US Dollars abroad due to political uncertainty. Chile’s Lower House approved another redemption from the pension system.
Ashmore’s Deputy Head of Research, Gustavo Medeiros, discusses China’s recent policy decisions and potential implications along with the broader outlook for the Emerging Markets.
DM central banks face a challenging trade-off between anchoring buoyed inflation back to their targets just as economic activity starts to slowdown, according to the latest PMI surveys.
Emerging Markets consumer prices index (CPI) inflation remains subdued as food prices are likely to decline into year-end. Primary issuance of Eurobonds increased last week. China announced further capital account liberalisation.
Global PMIs declined, dragged down by Covid-19 delta variant concerns as supply chain bottlenecks kept price pressures. The Brazilian Congress approved a tax reform as the government aims for a steep fiscal consolidation.