ChatGPT said: Markets navigated rising political and geopolitical noise as Brazilian election tensions grew, the US moved toward a well-telegraphed December rate cut with a data-dependent path in 2026, and commodities threatened to disrupt disinflation.
Manufacturing PMIs were stronger than expected in Indonesia, India, Malaysia and Thailand (snippets). The front end of global DM curves widened significantly, leading to further “bear” flattening across global yield curves (Global backdrop).
Today we will be talking about the post-pandemic macro-economic environment. In particular, the outlook for global inflation and how Central banks should react to it.
The Central Bank of Russia hiked its policy rate by more than expected as Governor Elvira Nabiullina prioritised anchoring inflation expectations, leading to a strong performance across Russian assets.
The IMF upgraded its 2021 growth forecast for Emerging Market (EM) economies and downgraded Developed Markets (DM). JP Morgan announced Egypt and Ukraine are joining the main local currency bond index in Q1-2022.
A number of senior politicians had their financial affairs exposed by the release of the Pandora Papers, while the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, is under pressure after a report unveiled minor irregularities.
Emerging Markets (EM) Manufacturing PMI converged towards Developed Markets (DM). Brazilian exporters are hoarding US Dollars abroad due to political uncertainty. Chile’s Lower House approved another redemption from the pension system.
Ashmore’s Deputy Head of Research, Gustavo Medeiros, discusses China’s recent policy decisions and potential implications along with the broader outlook for the Emerging Markets.
DM central banks face a challenging trade-off between anchoring buoyed inflation back to their targets just as economic activity starts to slowdown, according to the latest PMI surveys.
Emerging Markets consumer prices index (CPI) inflation remains subdued as food prices are likely to decline into year-end. Primary issuance of Eurobonds increased last week. China announced further capital account liberalisation.
Global PMIs declined, dragged down by Covid-19 delta variant concerns as supply chain bottlenecks kept price pressures. The Brazilian Congress approved a tax reform as the government aims for a steep fiscal consolidation.
The botched withdrawal of Afghanistan marks the end of NATO’s Nation-Building efforts in the Middle East and Central Asia. Mixed political news in Peru.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a USD 650bn injection of special drawing rights (SDR), boosting Emerging Markets (EM), frontier markets (FM) and foreign exchange (FX) reserves.