By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The AI Supercycle and Bottlenecks: A Multi-year Tailwind for EM

As AI compute demand scales, the worry has shifted from overbuilding to scarcity. Can energy and chip supply keep pace, or will bottlenecks throttle the capex cycle? We map the constraints and their implications for emerging markets.

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Weekly investor research

Oil down and risk assets up as US/Iran deal approaches

Risk assets rally and oil falls as a US/Iran deal nears. The ECB delivers its first rate hike in three years, US CPI lands in line as jobs surprise higher, Korean exports jump 46% year on year, and S&P upgrades Argentina to 'B-'.
Weekly investor research

US buyback engine sputters: Supply hits an overextended market

Record US tech issuance lands on an over-extended market of stretched valuations and positioning. Markets now price two Fed hikes ahead of Warsh's first meeting on 17 June, as India opens to foreign investors and South Korea moves to support the Won.
Video

WEBINAR: Emerging Markets: beyond the AI trade

Watch the replay: Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Dhiren Shah (Head of Emerging Markets Equity Strategy) discuss their views on EM opportunities, whether the AI trade has room to run and what it could mean for countries, sectors and stocks.

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Empty shelves
Weekly investor research

Energy and food crisis looms as the Ukraine war broadens

The situation on the ground continues to escalate. The United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US may backfill aircrafts to Poland as the latter sends theirs to Ukraine. Blinken also said the US is considering a full oil embargo on...
Sanctions over russia
Weekly investor research

Sanctions: intended and unintended consequences

The Russo-Ukrainian war is one of, and perhaps the most consequential conflicts since the end of World War 2. We examine the events on the ground, the announced sanctions and a first take on its potential impacts, both intended and unintended.
Flag of Russia and Ukraine
Market Commentary

An update on Russia/Ukraine

Since early November 2021, the United States has reported unusual Russian troop movements near the Ukrainian border. In late November, Ukraine said Russia had close to 90k troops around its borders in advance of an offensive attack. Moscow denied and...
Cracked brick wall painted with a Ukrainian flag on the left and a Russian flag on the right.
Weekly investor research

Geopolitics dominate the news flow

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine increased, but a diplomatic solution is still possible. Iran nears a deal with the West for the removal of sanctions. China’s inflation was lower than expected as the RMB role for foreign transactions increased.