Dark stylish compass with needle pointing to the year number 2026
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

2026 Emerging Markets Outlook

Disinflation, not debasement points to 'goldilocks' in 2026

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Emerging Market assets start 2026 strong, Venezuela in focus

US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
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EM central banks ease as DM diverges: ECB on hold, BoJ tightens

ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.
Fed rate cuts & EM Equities
Weekly investor research

Fed cuts as attention shifts to EM central banks

Fed cut 25bp plus $40bn/month T-bill buys. BOE set to cut, BOJ to hike; EM MPCs in focus. $52bn tech investment in India; IMF okays $1.2bn for Pakistan. Chile elects Kast; Vietnam FDI 5y high; ratings mixed (Oman up, Hungary down).

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Differentiation is the name of the game

The results of the leading e-commerce Chinese companies highlight the importance of active management in EM equities. Argentina and the IMF sent positive signals towards a new agreement.
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'EM in 10' update - October 2021

Today we will be talking about the post-pandemic macro-economic environment. In particular, the outlook for global inflation and how Central banks should react to it.
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Weekly investor research

Rising policy uncertainty. Georgieva should stay, Powell may go

A number of senior politicians had their financial affairs exposed by the release of the Pandora Papers, while the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, is under pressure after a report unveiled minor irregularities.
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Weekly investor research

EM manufacturing PMI increased, DM declined

Emerging Markets (EM) Manufacturing PMI converged towards Developed Markets (DM). Brazilian exporters are hoarding US Dollars abroad due to political uncertainty. Chile’s Lower House approved another redemption from the pension system.
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Weekly investor research

Global PMIs shows supply chain bottlenecks persist

Global PMIs declined, dragged down by Covid-19 delta variant concerns as supply chain bottlenecks kept price pressures. The Brazilian Congress approved a tax reform as the government aims for a steep fiscal consolidation.