By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for emerging market small cap equities

EM small caps are assumed to be the risky cousin of US small caps. The data says otherwise: nearly nine in ten are profitable, on half the forward multiple of the Russell 2000. We make the case for the asset class.

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Weekly investor research

Oil relief welcome before Wednesday’s FOMC

After 13 consecutive nights of strikes, the US paused its attack on Iran over the weekend, welcome relief ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. Elsewhere, Samsung and SK Hynix signed USD 950bn of US supply deals and Bank Indonesia's governor resigned.
Weekly investor research

The arrival of Kimi K3 tests investors’ faith in Jevons’ Paradox

Chinese open-weight model Kimi K3 raises questions over AI lab monetisation, testing investors’ faith in Jevons’ Paradox. The Korean memory stock unwind extends, US CPI turns negative and the Bank of Korea hikes for the first time in three years.

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The Emerging View

The USD bull trap and EM USD debt

Emerging market assets underperformed over the first four months of the year as market participants priced in a much more hawkish hiking cycle by the Fed. At the same time, higher interest rates differentials buoyed the greenback lead the US Dollar...
Weekly investor research

Better than expected Chinese data, but peace talks stalled in Ukraine

Chinese economic activity was better than expected, but underlying sector data suggests weaker dynamics than meets the eye. Sri Lanka announced the suspension of debt service. Indian inflation surprised to the upside. Indonesian trade surplus rose...
Market Commentary

Russia & Belarus index exclusion post-mortem

This piece reviews the background and impact of the exclusion of Russia and Belarus from the main Emerging Markets (EM) indices as well as the current market conditions and outlook for Russian and Ukrainian bonds.
Weekly investor research

Global Manufacturing PMIs play into the stagflation narrative

Global Markit Manufacturing PMI indicators softened, as China underperformed due to targeted lockdowns in Shanghai, notably. The increase in ISM prices paid and the depressed level of supplier delivery times in the US Markit PMI provide further...
The Emerging View

The case for EM in a multipolar world

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world. The economic...