Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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A blue and white argentinian flag with a yellow sun sits on a pole. The sky is clear and blue, with a few clouds scattered throughout. The flag is waving in the breeze, giving the impression of a sunny day.
Weekly investor research

Viva la Libertad!

US–China agree trade framework; China prioritises tech and posts 22% y/y profit rebound. US sanctions Russian refineries. BI seen easing to ~3.5%. SK–US talks stall. Argentina’s ruling party wins midterms. Moody’s puts US tariffs on Mexico at 7.5%.
Oil rig production platforms at sea
Weekly investor research

Oil goes contango

US private-credit failures lift risk; oil flips to contango; Trump reverses Ukraine Tomahawks; Israel-Hamas truce collapses after 2 Israeli soldiers shot; China credit weak; S Korea tightens property; US $40bn for Argentina; Mexico eyes excise hikes.

Latest Insights

Emerging view
The Emerging View

A short note on Peruvian politics

Peru is characterised by a pronounced and somewhat unusual dichotomy between deeply dysfunctional politics and generally strong economic performance.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Ships blocked, chips scarce

A large containership blocked the Suez Canal last week, disrupting global trade.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Transitions

Transitions are noisy, but interesting from an investment perspective.
IMF building
Market Commentary

Missing the big picture on IMF lending

In a recent opinion piece in the Financial Times, Ousmene Mandeng makes the point that the lending programmes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are defective.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Another VIX shock suggests opportunities in EM equities

Last week the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX as it is more commonly known, spiked by 59% to 33.1, impacting asset prices which, in our opinion, make EM equities and EM local bonds look attractive.
EM and the big Biden growth rotation
Market Commentary

EM and the big Biden growth rotation

In addition to bridging deep social divisions in American society, President Joe Biden faces two important policy challenges. One is to eradicate coronavirus. The other is to turn the economy and voter sentiment.