Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Another week of hawkish surprises and faster vaccinations in EM

By Gustavo Medeiros

Emerging Markets (EM) countries are now vaccinating their populations at a faster rate than developed markets (DM), strengthening the outlook for economic recovery. At the same time, more EM central banks are turning hawkish quicker than expected. Mexico unexpectedly hiked rates by 25bps and Hungary hiked rates by 30bps as expected, but adopted a more hawkish tone in communications. Similarly, the Chilean central bank signalled rate hikes over the coming meetings. In other EM news, Chinese industrial profits rose to the highest level since 2017 and Brazil’s finance minister forwarded a tax reform to Congress. In Peru, President-elect Pedro Castillo said he would like to stick with the current Central Bank Governor, Julio Velarde. Argentina reached a deal with the Paris club to avoid a default. Colombian protest leaders called for a truce due to security and healthcare concerns. Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s kept Malaysia’s sovereign rating unchanged at ‘A-‘. Thailand left the policy rate unchanged. China agreed to restructure the debt of the Republic of Congo. Zambia’s fiscal accounts improved due to higher copper prices.

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