By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill, Simon Cooke
The Emerging View

Generating impact and returns through EM public debt markets

Global sustainability funding needs are overwhelmingly concentrated in emerging markets, yet impact capital still skews to developed markets. The September Emerging View sets out why EM public debt is the most scalable way to close the gap.

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Weekly investor research

AI safety and surging energy prices trigger risk-off mood

Markets price a 90% chance of a Fed hike this week even as CPI details stay benign, while Saudi Arabia shuts its East-West pipeline. Plus: Korea weighs a Hormuz deployment, Brazil’s biggest inflation drop since 2022 and Dangote’s Kenyan refinery.
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WEBINAR: India: The Uncorrelated Allocation

Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Rashi Talwar, in conversation with Ben Underhill (Research Associate), discuss their views of the key themes in the Indian equity market and how Ashmore is positioning.

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Until next year…

‘Risk-off’ and higher rates after US Fed meeting caused a cross asset sell-off last week, including in EM. Ukraine assassinate Russian commander inside Moscow. Erdogan urges foreign countries to withdraw support for Kurdish fighters in Syria.
Weekly investor research

Fed Funds lower, but 10-year higher: Can it last?

US 10-year Treasury yield 75bps higher since start of rate cuts. Israel continued to strike Syrian air defences and weapon depots, as Turkish-backed opposition assumed control. China’s Central Economic Work Conference signalled ongoing commitment to...
Weekly investor research

Bashar al-Assad falls in two weeks after a 13-year Civil War in Syria

The impact on EM and global macro of the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Ukraine cease-fire discussions ongoing. Global PMI shows sentiment to manufacturing in EM improving. The Politburo vowed to stabilise real estate & equities and moved...
The Emerging View

2025 Emerging Markets Outlook

The theme of our 2024 Outlook was a hit. Emerging market (EM) economies’ newfound resilience had more legs this year, despite a lacklustre performance from China. The positive effects of post-pandemic structural reforms and fiscal discipline have been...
Weekly investor research

The 2024 winner: Vote for change

Romania and Uruguay voted for change last weekend. The fact that both these countries have very different historical backgrounds and economic situations confirms the overarching anti-incumbency bias faced by most politicians today...
Weekly investor research

Trump trades wobble

Stocks struggled and the US yield curve steepened as markets took back post-US election gains on higher inflation expectations. Trump’s choices for foreign policy positions were hawkish and have raised geopolitical risk at the margin. Attention now...
Live at the Sub-ICs

Qatar: Do investors risk myopia for a country with a vision?

The economic roadmap Towards the end of the 1990s, Qatar saw a step-change in the magnitude and sustainability of its economic growth based on a competitive LNG value chain with global reach. Qatar succeeded in scaling up, integrating downstream and...
Market Commentary

Trump 2.0: Implications for Emerging Markets

While Donald Trump’s election victory was far from a surprise, the strength of the mandate he won was impressive. Trump captured all seven of the pivotal swing states needed for Electoral College success, the Republicans flipped the Senate and are...
Weekly investor research

EM markets resilient as dust settles on US election

Trump’s big win delivered the expected macro reaction; for one day. Geopolitical discussions begin with Trump and Zelensky, and (probably) Trump and Putin. Qatar request Hamas leaders leave Doha. China deliver RMN10tn in fiscal support for local...
Weekly investor research

Iowa poll shakes up Trump bets in markets

Softer US labour data contrasted with higher inflation, consumption and wider UK budget deficit, which kept yields under pressure last week. A surprising poll in Iowa showed Harris leading in a perceived ‘red’ state. China expected to unveil large...
The Emerging View

The impact of oil prices on EM sovereign credit

Today, oil exposure among Emerging Market (EM) nations is very diversified. Of course, there are major EM oil exporters, but most countries are net energy importers. In weighted terms, only 17% of the JP Morgan index of EM sovereign bonds (EMBI GD) are...
Market Commentary

Dispatch from DC

The Autumn IMF meetings present an opportunity for investors to engage with IMF authorities, central bankers, finance ministers, technocrats, political consultants, economist and peers. The state of the global economy and the main risks and...
Weekly investor research

Trump trade shaping markets one week from US election

UST yields continued to climb higher on economic outperformance and ‘Trump trade.’ Key Chinese fiscal legislators announced they will meet between the 4-8th of November. Oil sold off 5% on Sunday evening, after Israel chose not to strike Iranian oil...
Weekly investor research

China’s policy “u-turn” reaffirmed

Higher US CPI and jobless claims led to a steepening of the yield curve. China shed some more light on stimulus plans, without revealing scope of fiscal expansion, yet. Korean bonds will enter the FTSE WGBI and Indian bonds on the FTSE EM GBI in Q4 2025