Dark stylish compass with needle pointing to the year number 2026
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

2026 Emerging Markets Outlook

Disinflation, not debasement points to 'goldilocks' in 2026

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Beautiful night scene of tokyo skyline
Weekly investor research

USD weakness, JPY strength and more EM outperformance

Yen surged on US Treasury activity amid benign US inflation. India-EU trade and Colombia/Chile fiscal reforms highlight EM shifts. Global diplomacy saw US-Ukraine-Russia talks, while Fitch boosted Türkiye and Gabon resumed IMF engagement.
Colourful houses at sunset in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk.
Weekly investor research

Greenland, tariffs, and yet another case for EU capital repatriation

Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.

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Mount Fuji, Japan.
Weekly investor research

Will the Bank of Japan exit NIRP after eight years?

A central bank-heavy week, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) potentially departing from its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) after eight years. In the United States (US), investors will likely carefully analyse the statement, dot-plot estimates and...
Close up eyes with glasses looking at charts
Weekly investor research

All eyes on inflation data

Inflation rose above expectations in most Emerging Market (EM) countries. Inflation is at far from concerning levels, but may slow down the pace of rate cuts in a few countries in our view. Last week, US Treasury (UST) yields declined after the...
Egyptian pound notes
Weekly investor research

Frontier markets drive EM Sovereign debt returns

The G-20 talked up a soft global economic landing, despite many risks. Inflation rebounded in January for the US and surprised to the upside in the Eurozone in February, which led to a re-pricing on the number of policy rate cuts implied in interest...
Solar panels
The Emerging View

An EM ex-China manufacturing renaissance

Since its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China has posed formidable competition for other countries in the manufacturing sector. The country’s rapid ascent since the turn of the century has seen it emerge as the dominant force...
Virtual graphic data connect with AI.
Weekly investor research

Hawkish FOMC minutes meet AI exuberance

The minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were more hawkish than initially expected. Artificial Intelligence (AI) exuberance has brought Nvidia valuations to extreme levels, but value may yet be found across its Asian...
Voter on an waiving Indonesia flag background.
Weekly investor research

Prabowo’s landslide victory is positive in the short term

General Prabowo Subianto won the Indonesian presidential election in the first round. Domestic travel and tourism spending hit records during the Chinese New Year. China has been exporting deflation to the world, regardless of the state of the local...
Colourful dragon
Weekly investor research

EM Asia regulators acting to boost cheap equity market valuations

Stock markets and bond yields rose last week, led by strong economic activity numbers. Israel rebuffed a ceasefire proposal and attacked Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah. China replaced its securities regulator, a sign that measures to boost the stock...
A question mark lying on some dollar bills
Weekly investor research

The Fed delays the easing cycle while EM central banks press on

Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, and Ghana cut their policy rates. Egypt hiked by 200 basis points (bps), moving to an orthodox policy stance favoured by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as it stepped up its conversations to receive a fresh loan...
Controlling inflation
Weekly investor research

Less Dovish or More Hawkish?

The disruption in global shipping from Houthi attacks in the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb may have a larger than expected impact, if continued...
Man putting ballot in a box during elections in Taiwan in front of flag
Weekly investor research

Taiwan: incumbent party wins election, but loses majority in Congress

Taiwan's Vice-President Lai Ching-te was elected President although the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its Congress majority. Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea caused a spike in shipping costs. Despite an upside US consumer price index (CPI)...
Seal of the Federal Reserve System
Weekly investor research

More dovish Fed boosts EM debt towards year-end

The December meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proved a pivotal moment for markets. Whilst the target policy rate was unchanged, the median forecast for the Fed funds rate at end-2024 fell from 5.1% in September to 4.6%, triggering...
Ashmore's outlook for 2024 in Emerging Markets
The Emerging View

2024 Outlook: Resilience, Tails, and Inflections

Global Macro Summary: Resilience: In 2023, GDP growth surprised to the upside in several Emerging Market (EM) countries and recovered in China. In 2024, EM ex-China should remain supported as the Chinese GDP soft-landing resumes. Developed Market (DM) gro
American economy
Weekly investor research

Year-end rally quietens political noise…for now

The year-end rally continued to be very strong with US Treasuries this November recording their strongest monthly performance since 1985. Elsewhere, however, sources of political risk persist. Oil continued to sell off following the OPEC announcement...