By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Emerging market resilience tested by energy shock and Fed hikes

The Fed is tightening into an energy shock, a combination that has triggered EM crises before. This time the reaction has been muted. We explain why, and the four questions that will shape the outlook from here.

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Bangkok's many contrasts

Takeaways from the IMF Annual Meetings: resilience once again, fiscal complacency in developed markets, and two upgrade candidates for every downgrade.

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Volatility and opportunity

Ecuadorian bonds experienced considerable price volatility due to inaccurate journalism.
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Chinese bonds deliver in bear markets

Chinese local currency government bonds are entering JP Morgan’s EM local bond index, the GBI-EM GD, at the end of this month.
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The option value of waiting

High levels of uncertainty are not only associated with a scarcity of facts, but also with high trading costs.
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The power of carry

Quantitative Easing (QE) policies in developed countries triggered a flight from yield in Emerging Markets (EM) as investors pursued capital gains in developed markets instead.
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Habemus trade deals

The signing of the phase one trade deal between the United States (US) and China and the ratification of USMCA by the US Senate reduced tail risks and boosted short term market sentiment.
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Delightful diversification

Often underappreciated, the benefits of diversification in external debt were richly on display in 2019, when the asset class returned 15% despite significant volatility in a number of EM countries, including Argentina.
The Emerging View

The 2020-2024 EM fixed income outlook

Following another year of strong returns, EM fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years.