Dark stylish compass with needle pointing to the year number 2026
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

2026 Emerging Markets Outlook

Disinflation, not debasement points to 'goldilocks' in 2026

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Beautiful night scene of tokyo skyline
Weekly investor research

USD weakness, JPY strength and more EM outperformance

Yen surged on US Treasury activity amid benign US inflation. India-EU trade and Colombia/Chile fiscal reforms highlight EM shifts. Global diplomacy saw US-Ukraine-Russia talks, while Fitch boosted Türkiye and Gabon resumed IMF engagement.
Colourful houses at sunset in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk.
Weekly investor research

Greenland, tariffs, and yet another case for EU capital repatriation

Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.

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Emerging view
The Emerging View

Passive is active: the EM index problem

In a recent article about China’s inclusion in the MSCI benchmark index the Financial Times columnist John Authers made the following astute observation: “There is something ungainly in the way [China’s index inclusion] has been outsourced to MSCI..."
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Putting the world into global bond funds

Global bond funds have seen a dramatic rise in assets over the past 10 years, reflecting the desire of investors to be exposed to a broader, more diverse set of assets away from their home markets.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Where do broken bonds go?

As investors return to EM local markets on the back of strong performance and a solid outlook they will be forced to inject capital directly into EM economies.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Outlook for EM and global backdrop

Emerging Markets (EM) asset prices over-reacted to the downside in recent years, especially given that EM fundamentals held up far better than expected in the face of serious headwinds.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The Myth of EM FX pass-through

One of the common perceptions about EM is that inflation rises sharply when their currencies weaken.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Weak Dollar policy

The US economy is becoming seriously unproductive and the Trump Administration faces an important choice: support American business with heterodox policies such as import tariffs or abandon the strong Dollar policy?
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Trump and EM

The threat of protectionism is on the rise, nowhere more so than in the United States, the erstwhile bastion of free markets.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Border adjustment

President-elect Donald Trump is threatening US and foreign corporations with new taxes on a daily basis in a clear sign that the risk of US protectionism is rising.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The rational fear of policy mistakes

Lengthy and fevered speculation preceded yesterday’s “comprehensive reassessment” by the BOJ and the Fed’s September decision on interest rates.