Seoul City skyline
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

South Korea in focus

Korea runs a current account surplus yet the won sits at a 13-year low. We unpack the engineered offshoring behind it, why the policy is now reversing, and why we think the setup for Korean equities looks the strongest since 2007.

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The semiconductor super cycle roars on

Iran-US backchannels continue as Tehran submits a new proposal, while semiconductor stocks extend a stretched rally. EM signals were mixed, with contained US inflation expectations, Hungary improving and Philippines downgraded.
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Schrödinger’s Strait

Hormuz tensions drag on as Iran-US talks may resume. IMF meetings were broadly EM-positive on a weaker USD and firmer commodities, but Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Türkiye all saw fresh policy or credibility strains.
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Regime change in Hungary and positive election results in Peru

Markets focused on politics, energy and AI: Hungary and Peru point to more market-friendly outcomes, US pressure on Iranian oil raises risk, AI-led growth remains strong from the US to Korea, while Colombia was downgraded and Turkey’s outlook softened.

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The well-meaning misguided G20 proposal

The recently launched G20 initiative to provide debt relief for poorer Emerging Markets (EM) countries may be well-meaning, but it is also seriously misguided. In particular, the proposal fails on two counts.
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The case for a global macro-prudential policy

The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ EM countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of  our time.
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The merits of Ecuador’s approach

Ecuador has put forward a plan for dealing with an unprecedented triple shock of lower oil prices, coronavirus and loss of access to financial markets.
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The final shock

Lebanon announced a moratorium on its sovereign debt.
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Volatility and opportunity

Ecuadorian bonds experienced considerable price volatility due to inaccurate journalism.