Seoul City skyline
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

South Korea in focus

Korea runs a current account surplus yet the won sits at a 13-year low. We unpack the engineered offshoring behind it, why the policy is now reversing, and why we think the setup for Korean equities looks the strongest since 2007.

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The semiconductor super cycle roars on

Iran-US backchannels continue as Tehran submits a new proposal, while semiconductor stocks extend a stretched rally. EM signals were mixed, with contained US inflation expectations, Hungary improving and Philippines downgraded.
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Schrödinger’s Strait

Hormuz tensions drag on as Iran-US talks may resume. IMF meetings were broadly EM-positive on a weaker USD and firmer commodities, but Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Türkiye all saw fresh policy or credibility strains.
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Regime change in Hungary and positive election results in Peru

Markets focused on politics, energy and AI: Hungary and Peru point to more market-friendly outcomes, US pressure on Iranian oil raises risk, AI-led growth remains strong from the US to Korea, while Colombia was downgraded and Turkey’s outlook softened.

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Chinese bonds deliver in bear markets

Chinese local currency government bonds are entering JP Morgan’s EM local bond index, the GBI-EM GD, at the end of this month.
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The option value of waiting

High levels of uncertainty are not only associated with a scarcity of facts, but also with high trading costs.
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The power of carry

Quantitative Easing (QE) policies in developed countries triggered a flight from yield in Emerging Markets (EM) as investors pursued capital gains in developed markets instead.
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Habemus trade deals

The signing of the phase one trade deal between the United States (US) and China and the ratification of USMCA by the US Senate reduced tail risks and boosted short term market sentiment.
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Delightful diversification

Often underappreciated, the benefits of diversification in external debt were richly on display in 2019, when the asset class returned 15% despite significant volatility in a number of EM countries, including Argentina.
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The 2020-2024 EM fixed income outlook

Following another year of strong returns, EM fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years.
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The opportunity of EM real estate

Lower interest rates in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis are increasing the affordability of real estate while rendering conventional liquid fixed income in developed economies (DM) less attractive.