By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The AI Supercycle and Bottlenecks: A Multi-year Tailwind for EM

As AI compute demand scales, the worry has shifted from overbuilding to scarcity. Can energy and chip supply keep pace, or will bottlenecks throttle the capex cycle? We map the constraints and their implications for emerging markets.

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Oil down and risk assets up as US/Iran deal approaches

Risk assets rally and oil falls as a US/Iran deal nears. The ECB delivers its first rate hike in three years, US CPI lands in line as jobs surprise higher, Korean exports jump 46% year on year, and S&P upgrades Argentina to 'B-'.
Weekly investor research

US buyback engine sputters: Supply hits an overextended market

Record US tech issuance lands on an over-extended market of stretched valuations and positioning. Markets now price two Fed hikes ahead of Warsh's first meeting on 17 June, as India opens to foreign investors and South Korea moves to support the Won.
Video

WEBINAR: Emerging Markets: beyond the AI trade

Watch the replay: Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Dhiren Shah (Head of Emerging Markets Equity Strategy) discuss their views on EM opportunities, whether the AI trade has room to run and what it could mean for countries, sectors and stocks.

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The final shock

Lebanon announced a moratorium on its sovereign debt.
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Volatility and opportunity

Ecuadorian bonds experienced considerable price volatility due to inaccurate journalism.
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Chinese bonds deliver in bear markets

Chinese local currency government bonds are entering JP Morgan’s EM local bond index, the GBI-EM GD, at the end of this month.
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The option value of waiting

High levels of uncertainty are not only associated with a scarcity of facts, but also with high trading costs.
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The power of carry

Quantitative Easing (QE) policies in developed countries triggered a flight from yield in Emerging Markets (EM) as investors pursued capital gains in developed markets instead.