By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The AI Supercycle and Bottlenecks: A Multi-year Tailwind for EM

As AI compute demand scales, the worry has shifted from overbuilding to scarcity. Can energy and chip supply keep pace, or will bottlenecks throttle the capex cycle? We map the constraints and their implications for emerging markets.

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The right edges ahead in the Colombian presidential race

A rightward tide is reshaping Latin American politics: De La Espriella tops Colombia's first round, Fujimori leads Peru's runoff polls, and Caputo predicts a comfortable Milei re-election in Argentina.
Weekly investor research

Deal or no deal?

The US strikes Iranian military assets after Trump signals a deal is close. Aramco preps its largest privatisation to date, South Korea seeds a sovereign wealth fund with semiconductor tax revenue, and UAE investment in the US tops USD 1trn.
Weekly investor research

Global yields squeeze higher

Brent crude topped USD 110 after Iran's strike on a UAE nuclear plant. S&P upgraded Nigeria to 'B' (first since 2012) but cut Mexico's 'BBB+' outlook to negative. Russia launched its heaviest aerial strikes of the year on Ukraine.

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Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Delightful diversification

Often underappreciated, the benefits of diversification in external debt were richly on display in 2019, when the asset class returned 15% despite significant volatility in a number of EM countries, including Argentina.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The 2020-2024 EM fixed income outlook

Following another year of strong returns, EM fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The opportunity of EM real estate

Lower interest rates in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis are increasing the affordability of real estate while rendering conventional liquid fixed income in developed economies (DM) less attractive.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Argentina Q&A

Argentina once again finds itself in the grip of financial turmoil.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The case for EM local currency debt

The establishment of local bond markets has been the single most important structural change in Emerging Markets (EM) in the past quarter of a century.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The case for EM external debt

The case for Emerging Markets external debt is solid. The long-term risk-reward has been and remains compelling. The outlook over the medium-term also favours the asset class as the unwinding of distortions in global bond markets attributable to Quantitat
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Beware of Big Fiscal

Picture yourself in charge of the government of a rich country.