Dark stylish compass with needle pointing to the year number 2026
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

2026 Emerging Markets Outlook

Disinflation, not debasement points to 'goldilocks' in 2026

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Colourful houses at sunset in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk.
Weekly investor research

Greenland, tariffs, and yet another case for EU capital repatriation

Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.
Seoul City skyline
Weekly investor research

Rising geopolitical risks, resilient EM equity performance

EM assets keep outperforming as US jobs data softens. Powell faces DOJ subpoena. Trump ordered Fannie/Freddie to buy $200bn MBS, pushing 30y yields down. Iran protests lifted oil; US shielded Venezuela funds; Argentina $3bn repo; Japan snap poll talk.
New 2026 year progress bar on digital lcd display.
Weekly investor research

Emerging Market assets start 2026 strong, Venezuela in focus

US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.

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Market commentary
Market Commentary

The case for a global macro-prudential policy

The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ EM countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of  our time.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The merits of Ecuador’s approach

Ecuador has put forward a plan for dealing with an unprecedented triple shock of lower oil prices, coronavirus and loss of access to financial markets.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The final shock

Lebanon announced a moratorium on its sovereign debt.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Volatility and opportunity

Ecuadorian bonds experienced considerable price volatility due to inaccurate journalism.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Chinese bonds deliver in bear markets

Chinese local currency government bonds are entering JP Morgan’s EM local bond index, the GBI-EM GD, at the end of this month.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The option value of waiting

High levels of uncertainty are not only associated with a scarcity of facts, but also with high trading costs.