Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.
EM assets keep outperforming as US jobs data softens. Powell faces DOJ subpoena. Trump ordered Fannie/Freddie to buy $200bn MBS, pushing 30y yields down. Iran protests lifted oil; US shielded Venezuela funds; Argentina $3bn repo; Japan snap poll talk.
US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ EM countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of our time.
The Reinhart-Rogoff proposal - In a recent article in Project Syndicate, prominent academics Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff put forward a proposal for a moratorium on Emerging Markets (EM) external debt...
Ecuador has put forward a plan for dealing with an unprecedented triple shock of lower oil prices, coronavirus and loss of access to financial markets.
Global stock markets have been struck by a triple shock; global pandemic, energy price war and market rout from full valuation levels in developed markets.
The liquidity collapse resulting from the cumulative effects of the expected recession, the decline in oil prices and extreme market volatility was the main problem facing global markets last week.
An unprecedented triple shock from the US stock market crash, COVID-19 and falling oil prices has dislocated asset prices and impaired liquidity across all markets.