By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Emerging market resilience tested by energy shock and Fed hikes

The Fed is tightening into an energy shock, a combination that has triggered EM crises before. This time the reaction has been muted. We explain why, and the four questions that will shape the outlook from here.

Subscribe to our insights

Subscribe and get notified as soon as we publish our content

The latest insights from our categories

Weekly investor research

Bond yields fall as AI financing concerns drive risk-off move

Core CPI surprised to the upside, yet Treasuries rallied as semiconductor and AI-credit stress drove a flight from risk. Plus: Saudi Arabia under daily Houthi fire, the IMF’s India upgrade, MSCI’s Indonesia warning and Bolsonaro’s narrowing lead.
Weekly investor research

US CPI up next for bonds, while stocks pivot to Q3 earnings

Core CPI should stay benign even as the headline rises, while Q3 earnings must justify a market concentrated in AI. Plus: Trump’s energy ceasefire, Bolsonaro’s poll lead, Malaysia’s budget and Ghana’s upgrade.

Latest Insights

The Emerging View

Passive is active: the EM index problem

In a recent article about China’s inclusion in the MSCI benchmark index the Financial Times columnist John Authers made the following astute observation: “There is something ungainly in the way [China’s index inclusion] has been outsourced to MSCI..."
Market Commentary

Putting the world into global bond funds

Global bond funds have seen a dramatic rise in assets over the past 10 years, reflecting the desire of investors to be exposed to a broader, more diverse set of assets away from their home markets.
The Emerging View

Where do broken bonds go?

As investors return to EM local markets on the back of strong performance and a solid outlook they will be forced to inject capital directly into EM economies.
The Emerging View

Outlook for EM and global backdrop

Emerging Markets (EM) asset prices over-reacted to the downside in recent years, especially given that EM fundamentals held up far better than expected in the face of serious headwinds.
The Emerging View

The Myth of EM FX pass-through

One of the common perceptions about EM is that inflation rises sharply when their currencies weaken.
The Emerging View

Weak Dollar policy

The US economy is becoming seriously unproductive and the Trump Administration faces an important choice: support American business with heterodox policies such as import tariffs or abandon the strong Dollar policy?
The Emerging View

Trump and EM

The threat of protectionism is on the rise, nowhere more so than in the United States, the erstwhile bastion of free markets.
Market Commentary

Border adjustment

President-elect Donald Trump is threatening US and foreign corporations with new taxes on a daily basis in a clear sign that the risk of US protectionism is rising.
Market Commentary

The rational fear of policy mistakes

Lengthy and fevered speculation preceded yesterday’s “comprehensive reassessment” by the BOJ and the Fed’s September decision on interest rates.