Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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Federal Reserve - Central Banking
Weekly investor research

Weak US payrolls all but assure a September rate cut

Weak US payrolls point to a Sept Fed cut; US10Y ~4%. Senate set to confirm Stephen Miran as temporary Fed chair. French PM Bayrou likely ousted; Japan’s Ishiba resigns. OPEC+ to add 137k b/d in Oct. Poland cuts 25bp. Argentina midterms setback for Milei.
Images of the NANAY River and its large floodable forests that are home to a diversity of fauna and flora. It is a popular place for tourists to get away from the city and delve into nature deep in the Amazon rainforest of Peru.
Weekly investor research

Brazil’s inflation in decline

US data steady; focus shifts to jobs. Appeals court nixes “reciprocal tariffs” (SCOTUS pending). Ukraine ramps refinery strikes. Indonesia protests. Thailand PM dismissed. Brazil Aug deflation; Türkiye Q2 +4.8% growth; Egypt cuts rates 200bps.
The beautiful, colorful city of Oaxaca
Weekly investor research

More US policy drama, more EM outperformance

EM outperformance in Aug; US reflation vs EU deflation. Trump to fire Fed Gov Lisa Cook. FR PM Bayrou faces 8 Sep no-confidence. G7 little result. Bond funds +$97bn/4w. Argentina assets fall on scandal. Moody’s reviews PEMEX for upgrade after $12bn plan.

Latest Insights

Empty shelves
Weekly investor research

Energy and food crisis looms as the Ukraine war broadens

The situation on the ground continues to escalate. The United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US may backfill aircrafts to Poland as the latter sends theirs to Ukraine. Blinken also said the US is considering a full oil embargo on...
Sanctions over russia
Weekly investor research

Sanctions: intended and unintended consequences

The Russo-Ukrainian war is one of, and perhaps the most consequential conflicts since the end of World War 2. We examine the events on the ground, the announced sanctions and a first take on its potential impacts, both intended and unintended.
Flag of Russia and Ukraine
Market Commentary

An update on Russia/Ukraine

Since early November 2021, the United States has reported unusual Russian troop movements near the Ukrainian border. In late November, Ukraine said Russia had close to 90k troops around its borders in advance of an offensive attack. Moscow denied and...
Cracked brick wall painted with a Ukrainian flag on the left and a Russian flag on the right.
Weekly investor research

Geopolitics dominate the news flow

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine increased, but a diplomatic solution is still possible. Iran nears a deal with the West for the removal of sanctions. China’s inflation was lower than expected as the RMB role for foreign transactions increased.
American flags against the sky
Weekly investor research

The end of US stock market exceptionalism

Market price action signals the end of United States (US) stock market exceptionalism. Russia held cordial and constructive conversations with the US with the aim to de-escalate tensions on the Ukrainian border.