Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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Federal Reserve - Central Banking
Weekly investor research

Weak US payrolls all but assure a September rate cut

Weak US payrolls point to a Sept Fed cut; US10Y ~4%. Senate set to confirm Stephen Miran as temporary Fed chair. French PM Bayrou likely ousted; Japan’s Ishiba resigns. OPEC+ to add 137k b/d in Oct. Poland cuts 25bp. Argentina midterms setback for Milei.
Images of the NANAY River and its large floodable forests that are home to a diversity of fauna and flora. It is a popular place for tourists to get away from the city and delve into nature deep in the Amazon rainforest of Peru.
Weekly investor research

Brazil’s inflation in decline

US data steady; focus shifts to jobs. Appeals court nixes “reciprocal tariffs” (SCOTUS pending). Ukraine ramps refinery strikes. Indonesia protests. Thailand PM dismissed. Brazil Aug deflation; Türkiye Q2 +4.8% growth; Egypt cuts rates 200bps.
The beautiful, colorful city of Oaxaca
Weekly investor research

More US policy drama, more EM outperformance

EM outperformance in Aug; US reflation vs EU deflation. Trump to fire Fed Gov Lisa Cook. FR PM Bayrou faces 8 Sep no-confidence. G7 little result. Bond funds +$97bn/4w. Argentina assets fall on scandal. Moody’s reviews PEMEX for upgrade after $12bn plan.

Latest Insights

US Dollar bundles
Weekly investor research

US stocks down, EM stocks up

US stocks and the US dollar underperformed last week as economic activity slows in the US while EM stocks rebounded. China cut lending rates by 20bps. The Ukraine conflict remained at a stalemate as Russia downplayed the importance of Sweden and...
China markets with flag
Weekly investor research

China’s data weak, but leading indicators more encouraging

Finland and Sweden said they would like to join NATO. China’s economic data was much weaker than expected in April, but higher frequency data improved in May. Brazil’s Petrobras hiked diesel prices despite political pressures. Most Chileans said they...
Victory Day
Weekly investor research

No breakthrough on victory day

There was no breakthrough from Russia during victory day and no significant sanctions on Russia following the G7 meeting. Brazil hiked policy rate by 100bps to 12.75%, Czech and Poland hiked 75bps to 5.75% and 5.25% respectively while India hiked 40bps...
gas-pipeline-with-flags-of-Russia-and-EU
Weekly investor research

Russia threatens to cut gas supplies to Europe

Russia announced it halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and said it repaid the Eurobonds before the end of the grace period. Brazilian consumer price inflation rose less than expected. The Chinese politburo sent a strong message of support for...
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - May 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our EM in 10 monthly video review.
Bull trap
The Emerging View

The USD bull trap and EM USD debt

Emerging market assets underperformed over the first four months of the year as market participants priced in a much more hawkish hiking cycle by the Fed. At the same time, higher interest rates differentials buoyed the greenback lead the US Dollar...
Shanghai Stock market price display
Weekly investor research

Better than expected Chinese data, but peace talks stalled in Ukraine

Chinese economic activity was better than expected, but underlying sector data suggests weaker dynamics than meets the eye. Sri Lanka announced the suspension of debt service. Indian inflation surprised to the upside. Indonesian trade surplus rose...
Financial data under the magnifying glass
Market Commentary

Russia & Belarus index exclusion post-mortem

This piece reviews the background and impact of the exclusion of Russia and Belarus from the main Emerging Markets (EM) indices as well as the current market conditions and outlook for Russian and Ukrainian bonds.
Metal laser cutting tool
Weekly investor research

Global Manufacturing PMIs play into the stagflation narrative

Global Markit Manufacturing PMI indicators softened, as China underperformed due to targeted lockdowns in Shanghai, notably. The increase in ISM prices paid and the depressed level of supplier delivery times in the US Markit PMI provide further...
World globe map
The Emerging View

The case for EM in a multipolar world

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world. The economic...