EM local bonds stayed strong despite choppy markets, as UK/German policy stayed on a consolidation/investment path. India and South Korea surprised with strong growth, while EM sovereigns like Zambia and Qatar saw rating support.
The US Presidential debate and the first round of the French general elections are just starters for the political trends impacting the west. In contrast, the President of South Africa appointed its national unity government, which is likely to lead to...
Since the Covid shock, high global inflation, aggressive US fiscal expansion and a strong dollar have created a challenging environment for Emerging Market (EM) countries.
Geopolitical uncertainties abound after G-10 central banks start a tentative easing cycle. The US and global economies remain very imbalanced. China announced a monetary policy framework overhaul. Argentina delivered on fiscal consolidation and reforms…
It’s been exactly 30 years since then-President Nelson Mandela enabled South Africa’s transition from an apartheid white-minority government to a democratically-elected government by bringing several political parties together to form a...
Global stock volatility increased due to the French snap elections, the Fed’s hawkish tone, and deteriorating economic data. EM stocks were supported by Asia. Global bond yields declined after lower US inflation data. The EU announced tariffs on...
Rashi Talwar Bhatia, CEO of Ashmore India, speaks live from Mumbai where she views the election result as reassuring and testimony to India’s institutional framework. Rashi also believes the stock market will now refocus on company fundamentals which...
A landslide victory in Mexico led to higher market volatility as it raised constitutional risks, while coalition governments in South Africa and India led to a more muted market response. The IMF struck deals with Zambia, Ukraine, and Ecuador.
ECB likely to start an intermittent cutting cycle this week. Biden proposed a three-stage ceasefire plan for Gaza that faces opposition from the far-right in Israel. Narendra Modi’s coalition may get a super-majority in India.
FOMC minutes’ more hawkish tone led to a re-pricing of rate cut odds in September. Flash PMIs showed stronger service sector, booming India. Taiwan geopolitical ‘noise’ increased last week on the new government inauguration. Israel’s offensive in Rafah...
In a world where ‘Emerging Markets’ (EM) is often equated with ‘risk’, it may surprise global bond investors to discover that adding investment grade EM bonds to a global bond portfolio can improve performance without incurring additional volatility.
The heaviest rainfall in 75 years in Dubai is an unlikely analogy to the current state of geopolitical affairs in the Middle East. A few years ago, the prospect of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel would have brought chills to analysts’ spines.
US economic growth has surprised to the downside, inflation to the upside. A helicopter crash killed Iranian President Raisi. Israel’s Netanyahu faced more pressure from his cabinet. The US announced 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
The pivotal role of forest preservation in the battle against climate change is well understood. Forests provide a crucial carbon sink, the destruction of which will further accelerate global warming. Indeed, an estimated 15% of global carbon...
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) evolves, it has the potential to be transformational for Emerging Markets (EM) through the advancement of economic development, by disrupting industries and, in some EM companies’ cases, by leading the global AI...
Hawkish holds/cuts in EM contrasted with dovish holds/cuts in DM. US economic growth softened in recent weeks, while EM growth remained resilient. The US is considering quadrupling tariffs on Chinese renewable technology imports. China’s Xi visited...
Short-term bond yields have a cap as rate hikes in the US are “unlikely”, supporting asset prices. A less hawkish message from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell drove stocks and bond prices higher last week. The US labour market is softening...