Dark stylish compass with needle pointing to the year number 2026
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

2026 Emerging Markets Outlook

Disinflation, not debasement points to 'goldilocks' in 2026

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Local currencies from around the world
Weekly investor research

EM local currency bonds lead November performance tables

EM local bonds stayed strong despite choppy markets, as UK/German policy stayed on a consolidation/investment path. India and South Korea surprised with strong growth, while EM sovereigns like Zambia and Qatar saw rating support.

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Weekly investor research

Amuse-bouche

The US Presidential debate and the first round of the French general elections are just starters for the political trends impacting the west. In contrast, the President of South Africa appointed its national unity government, which is likely to lead to...
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The Emerging View

The untold story of improving EM fundamentals

Since the Covid shock, high global inflation, aggressive US fiscal expansion and a strong dollar have created a challenging environment for Emerging Market (EM) countries.
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Weekly investor research

Political uncertainties from DM countries in focus

Geopolitical uncertainties abound after G-10 central banks start a tentative easing cycle. The US and global economies remain very imbalanced. China announced a monetary policy framework overhaul. Argentina delivered on fiscal consolidation and reforms…
Parliament, South Africa
Live at the Sub-ICs

Elections in South Africa: A new GNU

It’s been exactly 30 years since then-President Nelson Mandela enabled South Africa’s transition from an apartheid white-minority government to a democratically-elected government by bringing several political parties together to form a...
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Weekly investor research

Lower inflation is the signal, random dots on a chart is noise.

Global stock volatility increased due to the French snap elections, the Fed’s hawkish tone, and deteriorating economic data. EM stocks were supported by Asia. Global bond yields declined after lower US inflation data. The EU announced tariffs on...
A transparent ballot box in front of a illuminated map of the world.
Weekly investor research

Elections still dominate the macro calendar

A landslide victory in Mexico led to higher market volatility as it raised constitutional risks, while coalition governments in South Africa and India led to a more muted market response. The IMF struck deals with Zambia, Ukraine, and Ecuador.
Colourful overlapping silhouettes of people voting.
Weekly investor research

Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico dominate the agenda.

FOMC minutes’ more hawkish tone led to a re-pricing of rate cut odds in September. Flash PMIs showed stronger service sector, booming India. Taiwan geopolitical ‘noise’ increased last week on the new government inauguration. Israel’s offensive in Rafah...
Middle East and Global Geopolitics: When it rains, it pours.
The Emerging View

Middle East and Global Geopolitics: When it rains, it pours.

The heaviest rainfall in 75 years in Dubai is an unlikely analogy to the current state of geopolitical affairs in the Middle East. A few years ago, the prospect of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel would have brought chills to analysts’ spines.
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Weekly investor research

Spotting stagflation

US economic growth has surprised to the downside, inflation to the upside. A helicopter crash killed Iranian President Raisi. Israel’s Netanyahu faced more pressure from his cabinet. The US announced 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
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Market Commentary

Rooting for change: Investor engagement and EM deforestation risk

The pivotal role of forest preservation in the battle against climate change is well understood. Forests provide a crucial carbon sink, the destruction of which will further accelerate global warming. Indeed, an estimated 15% of global carbon...
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Live at the Sub-ICs

EM’s role in the AI revolution: disruptor or disrupted?

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) evolves, it has the potential to be transformational for Emerging Markets (EM) through the advancement of economic development, by disrupting industries and, in some EM companies’ cases, by leading the global AI...
China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation
Weekly investor research

China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation

Hawkish holds/cuts in EM contrasted with dovish holds/cuts in DM. US economic growth softened in recent weeks, while EM growth remained resilient. The US is considering quadrupling tariffs on Chinese renewable technology imports. China’s Xi visited...
Two birds, one stone.
Weekly investor research

Two birds with one stone?: EM small caps

Short-term bond yields have a cap as rate hikes in the US are “unlikely”, supporting asset prices. A less hawkish message from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell drove stocks and bond prices higher last week. The US labour market is softening...