Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Weekly investor research

Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Dascht e Lut, Wüste, IranDasht-e Lut Iran, colored mountains Unesco world heritage site
Weekly investor research

Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
Legs and shoes on asphalt with the word "vote"
Weekly investor research

EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

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Oil pump on the background of the flag of Venezuela. Oil pump silhouette.
Weekly investor research

US temporarily removes sanctions on Venezuela

The US suspended for six months the financial sanctions imposed on Venezuelan oil and gas and secondary market trading of Eurobonds. The sanctions release was motivated by the tight supply on oil markets and the large number of Venezuelan immigrants...
Ballot box
Weekly investor research

Elections have consequences

The Israel-Hamas conflict remained the dominant theme in global macro. No major surprises from the IMF meetings in Marrakesh, where countries presented their fiscal and structural reform and several frontier countries worked on debt restructuring...
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Video

EM Equity - Ingredients for the next EM upcycle

Dhiren Shah (Lead Portfolio Manager of the Ashmore EM Equity Fund), and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research). During this live webinar they discussed the opportunities present in Emerging Market Equity.
Map showing Israel
Weekly investor research

Hamas Strikes Israel

Israel declared war on Hamas following an organised attack on the country, 50 years after the Yom Kippur War. A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) paper published last week suggests the global supply chain has lengthened since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Oil drums sitting over a bar graph
Weekly investor research

Slippery slope: Will oil keep driving rates higher?

Global oil markets experienced a bullish run towards the USD 100 per barrel level. High oil prices and increased supply of US Treasury (UST) bonds led to a strong sell-off in rates. Chinese economic data was better than consensus before the...
Picture of the world's continents in the clouds among the greenery
The Emerging View

Solving the Energy Transition paradox in Emerging Markets

The energy transition debate is maturing. The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to 2.0°C, ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels is imperative to avoid a challenging climate situation.
Indian banknotes
Weekly investor research

Indian Government Bonds: index inclusion matters

A hawkish dot-plot brought US interest rates higher, but risks are increasing. Disputes over Ukrainian grain exports increased tensions in Eastern Europe. JP Morgan announced it will include India in its Emerging Market (EM) Government bond index...
Sunny sky
Video

EM Local Currency Bonds: The dog days are over

Alexis de Mones (Portfolio Manager, Local Currency), and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research). During this live webinar they discussed the opportunities present in Local Currency Bonds.
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Weekly investor research

Another BRICs in the Wall

The BRICS group of countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) announced the inclusion of several other countries. China announced further measures to boost growth (and stock prices). Thailand Parliament elected a new government, led by...
Election voting card
Weekly investor research

Room for fiscal conservatives in October LATAM elections

The US and Chinese economic surprise indices push markets into peak US optimism and peak China pessimism. US Treasury yields continue to rise, driven by real rates, under the twin effects of strong data and large Treasury issuance. China’s economic...
Rethinking TINA: The Emerging Eight
The Emerging View

Rethinking TINA: The Emerging Eight

The role of the human psychological cycle in driving stock and bond prices is well understood and pre-dates behavioural economics. There are elements that suggest we may be going through another period of ‘irrational exuberance’ as several long-term...
Colombian Peso
Market Commentary

How did the Colombian Peso become this year’s darling?

What is the best performing currency in 2023 so far? Against all odds and biases, the Colombian Peso (COP), which is up 16.8% against the USD year-to-date and 22.8% including the ‘carry’, or the interest rate differential earned by carrying long...
Electric car being charged.
Weekly investor research

EV buyers may be in DM, but its supply chain assets are in EM

The strong performance of equity markets last week was related to the market interpretation of the main central bank decisions, seeing ‘not hawkish’ as ‘dovish’, and confusion over the actions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Chinese stocks outperformed on...