EM local bonds stayed strong despite choppy markets, as UK/German policy stayed on a consolidation/investment path. India and South Korea surprised with strong growth, while EM sovereigns like Zambia and Qatar saw rating support.
China upped the ante on supportive policies to both the real estate sector and stock market, sparking a USD 11.9bn weekly inflow to Chinese equities...
Taiwan's Vice-President Lai Ching-te was elected President although the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its Congress majority. Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea caused a spike in shipping costs. Despite an upside US consumer price index (CPI)...
Economic data and price action last week highlighted some of the big macro divergences from 2023. Geopolitical risks increased again in the Middle East. Taiwan poll of polls showed voting intentions for a third candidate ahead of next week’s ballot as...
The December meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proved a pivotal moment for markets. Whilst the target policy rate was unchanged, the median forecast for the Fed funds rate at end-2024 fell from 5.1% in September to 4.6%, triggering...
Fossil fuel industry showdown at COP28. China’s imports slow down. Argentina cheers as new President Milei promises belt-tightening. Suriname concludes its protracted debt restructuring deal. Venezuela’s Maduro turns the heat on Guyana likely to...
Global Macro Summary: Resilience: In 2023, GDP growth surprised to the upside in several Emerging Market (EM) countries and recovered in China. In 2024, EM ex-China should remain supported as the Chinese GDP soft-landing resumes. Developed Market (DM) gro
The year-end rally continued to be very strong with US Treasuries this November recording their strongest monthly performance since 1985. Elsewhere, however, sources of political risk persist. Oil continued to sell off following the OPEC announcement...
A solid November so far for market returns, but the path for an ongoing year-end large rally is narrowing. The respite in geopolitical tensions may also be short-lived. Israel agreed to a four-day cease fire in Gaza until Monday, but its Defence...
The war in Gaza is imposing an unbearable cost to both human life and the respective economies. Walmart voiced a cautious outlook on the US consumer. China’s Xi Jinping delivered a hopeful message at the APEC forum in San Francisco. Inflation declined...
Two articles from renowned economists highlighted Emerging Market (EM) policy superiority which has allowed EM local currency bonds to outperform Developed Market (DM) bonds over the last years. Indeed, inflation remained on a declining trend in most...
A combination of events saw yields drop from elevated levels as stock prices benefited from lower real interest rates. South Korea’s short selling ban led stocks higher but will delay any upgrade to Developed Market (DM) status to 2025.
This piece highlights the long-term paradigms shifts that are having an impact on global asset allocation, namely higher geopolitical risks, higher macroeconomic (inflation) volatility and energy transition. While these paradigm shifts themselves are...
The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) entered Gaza, but the incursion has so far been modest. The contained incursion lowers the risk of the conflict escalating, but the situation remains fluid. Another large merger in the oil and gas sector highlighted some..
The US suspended for six months the financial sanctions imposed on Venezuelan oil and gas and secondary market trading of Eurobonds. The sanctions release was motivated by the tight supply on oil markets and the large number of Venezuelan immigrants...
The Israel-Hamas conflict remained the dominant theme in global macro. No major surprises from the IMF meetings in Marrakesh, where countries presented their fiscal and structural reform and several frontier countries worked on debt restructuring...