By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The AI Supercycle and Bottlenecks: A Multi-year Tailwind for EM

As AI compute demand scales, the worry has shifted from overbuilding to scarcity. Can energy and chip supply keep pace, or will bottlenecks throttle the capex cycle? We map the constraints and their implications for emerging markets.

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WEBINAR: Emerging Markets: beyond the AI trade

Watch the replay: Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Dhiren Shah (Head of Emerging Markets Equity Strategy) discuss their views on EM opportunities, whether the AI trade has room to run and what it could mean for countries, sectors and stocks.
Weekly investor research

The right edges ahead in the Colombian presidential race

A rightward tide is reshaping Latin American politics: De La Espriella tops Colombia's first round, Fujimori leads Peru's runoff polls, and Caputo predicts a comfortable Milei re-election in Argentina.
Weekly investor research

Deal or no deal?

The US strikes Iranian military assets after Trump signals a deal is close. Aramco preps its largest privatisation to date, South Korea seeds a sovereign wealth fund with semiconductor tax revenue, and UAE investment in the US tops USD 1trn.

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Local currencies from around the world
Weekly investor research

EM local currency bonds lead November performance tables

EM local bonds stayed strong despite choppy markets, as UK/German policy stayed on a consolidation/investment path. India and South Korea surprised with strong growth, while EM sovereigns like Zambia and Qatar saw rating support.
A yellow road sign with a diverging arrow symbolises a critical crossroads against a blue sky.
Weekly investor research

With a bang or with a whimper: How will 2025 end?

Risk-off sentiment reversed as US liquidity expanded and bond yields recovered. NVIDIA earnings bolstered AI sector. Ukraine, South Korea, Malaysia, and Brazil saw trade progress; Mexico's economy contracted but recovery expected.
Wooden cubes with word Eurobond on euro banknotes
Weekly investor research

China’s new Eurobonds trading inside ‘risk-free rate’

China issued tight 3- and 5-year bonds. Multiple nations accessed Eurobond markets; Congo returned after 18 years. US shutdown neared resolution; job cuts surged to 153k. Democrats won electorally. European carmakers rebounded. Ghana's inflation hit 8.0%
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Weekly investor research

EM assets outperformed again in October

EM equities up a 10th month. US-China truce delays rare earth curbs; US inks deals with Thailand, Cambodia & Malaysia; tariffs remain. Fed cuts 25bp with split. India announces market/strategic metals reforms. Korea lifted by Nvidia’s 260k GPU sale.
MF entrance with sign of International Monetary Fund, concrete architecture building wall security guard doors.
The Emerging View

IMF WEO meeting highlights

Attending the IMF World Economic Outlook Forum provided reassurance that the global macro environment favours risk assets, especially EM/FM. Debasement fears are overblown. AI capex and Fed support keep spirits high.
A blue and white argentinian flag with a yellow sun sits on a pole. The sky is clear and blue, with a few clouds scattered throughout. The flag is waving in the breeze, giving the impression of a sunny day.
Weekly investor research

Viva la Libertad!

US–China agree trade framework; China prioritises tech and posts 22% y/y profit rebound. US sanctions Russian refineries. BI seen easing to ~3.5%. SK–US talks stall. Argentina’s ruling party wins midterms. Moody’s puts US tariffs on Mexico at 7.5%.
Oil rig production platforms at sea
Weekly investor research

Oil goes contango

US private-credit failures lift risk; oil flips to contango; Trump reverses Ukraine Tomahawks; Israel-Hamas truce collapses after 2 Israeli soldiers shot; China credit weak; S Korea tightens property; US $40bn for Argentina; Mexico eyes excise hikes.
Spaced mixture of mine, mining ores, commodities, metals, coal. Background concept, texture, rocks. Variety, mixed, many, multi-colored, colorful.
Weekly investor research

China plays its trump card (rare earths); Trump replays his (tariffs)

China tightens rare-earth exports; Trump eyes 100% tariffs. US shutdown ongoing. Oil falls; Gaza ceasefire. China exports firm, domestic/property weak. $20bn US-Argentina swap. Brazil tax reform; inflation down. Kazakhstan +150bps. Egypt & Ghana upgrades.
One executive runs up a red rising arrow while another falls along a blue declining arrow, symbolising market winners and losers over a city skyline.
Market Commentary

EM assets during easing cycles

After nine months of unchanged policy rates, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut by 25bps this September. Most market participants expect multiple rate reductions over the coming months. To put the Fed’s decision into context, we looked back at the impact...
Businessman cutting percentage sign with sword.
Weekly investor research

A new easing cycle bodes well for EM assets

Fed cut rates 25bps, more easing likely; Trump and Xi may meet in Oct; UK, Canada & Australia recognised Palestine; Sri Lanka credit upgraded; Argentina intervened to support peso; Brazil held Selic; Nigeria inflation fell to 20.1%.