EM local bonds stayed strong despite choppy markets, as UK/German policy stayed on a consolidation/investment path. India and South Korea surprised with strong growth, while EM sovereigns like Zambia and Qatar saw rating support.
EM stocks +4% (Asia-led); EM returns nearly double the S&P YTD. US data backs EM outperformance & weaker USD. US to urge G7 100% tariffs on China/India over Russian oil. Korea KRW 284tn relief; Mexico adds China tariffs; Moody’s affirms Romania Baa3, neg.
Weak US payrolls point to a Sept Fed cut; US10Y ~4%. Senate set to confirm Stephen Miran as temporary Fed chair. French PM Bayrou likely ousted; Japan’s Ishiba resigns. OPEC+ to add 137k b/d in Oct. Poland cuts 25bp. Argentina midterms setback for Milei.
It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...
US data steady; focus shifts to jobs. Appeals court nixes “reciprocal tariffs” (SCOTUS pending). Ukraine ramps refinery strikes. Indonesia protests. Thailand PM dismissed. Brazil Aug deflation; Türkiye Q2 +4.8% growth; Egypt cuts rates 200bps.
EM outperformance in Aug; US reflation vs EU deflation. Trump to fire Fed Gov Lisa Cook. FR PM Bayrou faces 8 Sep no-confidence. G7 little result. Bond funds +$97bn/4w. Argentina assets fall on scandal. Moody’s reviews PEMEX for upgrade after $12bn plan.
US CPI shows muted tariff pass-through; goods inflation up to 1.3% YoY. China data missed but stocks rallied. Trump met Putin. IEA sees 2026 oil glut. S&P lifts India to BBB; Moody’s upgrades Pakistan. Brazil CPI 5.2% YoY; easing in sight.
Trump/Lutnick: 90-day China extension; $50bn/mo tariffs aiding fiscal cons.; Trump-Putin meet in Alaska re Ukraine; Indonesia tariffs; Korea MFN carveout; Taiwan Jul exp +42%/+63% US; IMF cuts Arg. FX target; Bukele defends term reforms; Qatar Q2 RE +30%.
Trump hints at Fed/BLS meddling, echoing Turkey/Argentina missteps; after the 2 Aug tariff deadline, the US widens product exemptions and grants Mexico a 90-day hike delay; OPEC+ will add 547k bpd in September.
Volatile post-pandemic macro and US fiscal dominance risks, amid a historic H1-2025 Dollar selloff, are exposing the limits of passive, US-heavy indices. Investors should diversify toward markets less constrained by debt-shadowed central banks.
Europe & Japan face 15% US tariffs despite 'deals'. China may delay 12 Aug deadline by 90 days. India, S. Korea, Thailand talks ongoing. IMF backs Argentina. Brazil FDI weak. Mexico aids Pemex. Poland reshuffles. Türkiye upgraded. Nigeria, Zambia progress
CN supply boost stocks; Trump-Powell rumor fades. Strong US EPS. ID 19 % US tariff; TH zero tariff 90 % US goods; Moodys upgrades AR to Caa1; CO holds, peso top LatAm; UA confirms Svyrydenko PM; EG expands VAT; Fitch eyes ZM upgrade if 90% creditors agree
Yields rise on inflation and fiscal concerns, while US equities shrug off tariff risks. China tackles excess capacity. Malaysia cuts rates; Vietnam beats Q2 growth forecasts. US hits Brazil with tariffs. Romania tightens fiscally. AZ & Oman upgraded.
US passes ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’. Israel-Hamas talks begin Doha. AI chip curbs eyed for Thailand/Malaysia. India data strong. Trump touts Vietnam deal. Argentina downplays peso. Chile left gains. IMF merges Egypt reviews Sept. Dubai unveils home scheme.
A discussion on the fast-evolving EM frontier debt landscape and how it offers potential opportunities for investors seeking diversification and risk-adjusted returns.
LatAm was EM's worst performer in 2024, but is rebounding sharply in 2025. Colombia leads YTD gains at 49%, followed by Mexico, Chile, Brazil, and Peru. With elections ahead and market-friendly shifts likely, investors see a cyclical opportunity.
EM assets outperformed on weaker USD. Equities shrugged off global risks. China data mixed; Malaysia CPI soft. Colombia downgraded; Mexico revised GDP up. Brazil fiscal woes linger. Chile polarised. E. Europe defence spend challenge. MENA mostly positive.
US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.