MF entrance with sign of International Monetary Fund, concrete architecture building wall security guard doors.
By Gustavo Medeiros
The Emerging View

IMF WEO meeting highlights

Attending the IMF World Economic Outlook Forum provided reassurance that the global macro environment favours risk assets, especially EM/FM. Debasement fears are overblown. AI capex and Fed support keep spirits high.

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China’s new Eurobonds trading inside ‘risk-free rate’

China issued tight 3- and 5-year bonds. Multiple nations accessed Eurobond markets; Congo returned after 18 years. US shutdown neared resolution; job cuts surged to 153k. Democrats won electorally. European carmakers rebounded. Ghana's inflation hit 8.0%
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EM assets outperformed again in October

EM equities up a 10th month. US-China truce delays rare earth curbs; US inks deals with Thailand, Cambodia & Malaysia; tariffs remain. Fed cuts 25bp with split. India announces market/strategic metals reforms. Korea lifted by Nvidia’s 260k GPU sale.

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Our year of two halves thesis stays intact

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Hawks deliver a one-two strike

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EM PMIs still outperforming as China eases mobility further

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Flashing red PMIs already signalling a US recession in early 2023

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Tokayev elected president of Kazakhstan for another 7 years

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EM stocks and PMIs outperformed

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Threats, or tricks!

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