Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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One executive runs up a red rising arrow while another falls along a blue declining arrow, symbolising market winners and losers over a city skyline.
Market Commentary

EM assets during easing cycles

After nine months of unchanged policy rates, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut by 25bps this September. Most market participants expect multiple rate reductions over the coming months. To put the Fed’s decision into context, we looked back at the impact...
Businessman cutting percentage sign with sword.
Weekly investor research

A new easing cycle bodes well for EM assets

Fed cut rates 25bps, more easing likely; Trump and Xi may meet in Oct; UK, Canada & Australia recognised Palestine; Sri Lanka credit upgraded; Argentina intervened to support peso; Brazil held Selic; Nigeria inflation fell to 20.1%.

Latest Insights

One executive runs up a red rising arrow while another falls along a blue declining arrow, symbolising market winners and losers over a city skyline.
Market Commentary

EM assets during easing cycles

After nine months of unchanged policy rates, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut by 25bps this September. Most market participants expect multiple rate reductions over the coming months. To put the Fed’s decision into context, we looked back at the impact...
Businessman cutting percentage sign with sword.
Weekly investor research

A new easing cycle bodes well for EM assets

Fed cut rates 25bps, more easing likely; Trump and Xi may meet in Oct; UK, Canada & Australia recognised Palestine; Sri Lanka credit upgraded; Argentina intervened to support peso; Brazil held Selic; Nigeria inflation fell to 20.1%.
Sea of clouds, The Laojun Mountain, Luoyang, Henan, China, Asia. Funiu Mountains, Qinling Mountains.
Weekly investor research

Trade of 2025? EM > AI

EM stocks +4% (Asia-led); EM returns nearly double the S&P YTD. US data backs EM outperformance & weaker USD. US to urge G7 100% tariffs on China/India over Russian oil. Korea KRW 284tn relief; Mexico adds China tariffs; Moody’s affirms Romania Baa3, neg.
Federal Reserve - Central Banking
Weekly investor research

Weak US payrolls all but assure a September rate cut

Weak US payrolls point to a Sept Fed cut; US10Y ~4%. Senate set to confirm Stephen Miran as temporary Fed chair. French PM Bayrou likely ousted; Japan’s Ishiba resigns. OPEC+ to add 137k b/d in Oct. Poland cuts 25bp. Argentina midterms setback for Milei.
Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...
Images of the NANAY River and its large floodable forests that are home to a diversity of fauna and flora. It is a popular place for tourists to get away from the city and delve into nature deep in the Amazon rainforest of Peru.
Weekly investor research

Brazil’s inflation in decline

US data steady; focus shifts to jobs. Appeals court nixes “reciprocal tariffs” (SCOTUS pending). Ukraine ramps refinery strikes. Indonesia protests. Thailand PM dismissed. Brazil Aug deflation; Türkiye Q2 +4.8% growth; Egypt cuts rates 200bps.
The beautiful, colorful city of Oaxaca
Weekly investor research

More US policy drama, more EM outperformance

EM outperformance in Aug; US reflation vs EU deflation. Trump to fire Fed Gov Lisa Cook. FR PM Bayrou faces 8 Sep no-confidence. G7 little result. Bond funds +$97bn/4w. Argentina assets fall on scandal. Moody’s reviews PEMEX for upgrade after $12bn plan.
Shanghai city aerial photograph
Weekly investor research

Chinese economic data weakens, but stocks rally

US CPI shows muted tariff pass-through; goods inflation up to 1.3% YoY. China data missed but stocks rallied. Trump met Putin. IEA sees 2026 oil glut. S&P lifts India to BBB; Moody’s upgrades Pakistan. Brazil CPI 5.2% YoY; easing in sight.
Balanced scales: Left scale - Oversized USD/US equities. Right scale - Basket with gold bar, commodity, world currencies, EM skyline, bond coupon.
The Emerging View

Diversified asset allocation and US fiscal dominance

Volatile post-pandemic macro and US fiscal dominance risks, amid a historic H1-2025 Dollar selloff, are exposing the limits of passive, US-heavy indices. Investors should diversify toward markets less constrained by debt-shadowed central banks.
Sweden and China two flags together. Textile cloth fabric texture.
Weekly investor research

China holds the cards in Stockholm

Europe & Japan face 15% US tariffs despite 'deals'. China may delay 12 Aug deadline by 90 days. India, S. Korea, Thailand talks ongoing. IMF backs Argentina. Brazil FDI weak. Mexico aids Pemex. Poland reshuffles. Türkiye upgraded. Nigeria, Zambia progress
Made in China. Cardboard boxes with text made in China and Chinese flag on the roller conveyor.
Weekly investor research

Chinese policymakers focusing on industrial overcapacity

CN supply boost stocks; Trump-Powell rumor fades. Strong US EPS. ID 19 % US tariff; TH zero tariff 90 % US goods; Moodys upgrades AR to Caa1; CO holds, peso top LatAm; UA confirms Svyrydenko PM; EG expands VAT; Fitch eyes ZM upgrade if 90% creditors agree
Baku Flame Towers is the tallest skyscraper in Baku, Azerbaijan with a height of 190 m. The buildings consist of apartments, a hotel and office blocks.
Weekly investor research

Azerbaijan and Oman upgraded to investment grade

Yields rise on inflation and fiscal concerns, while US equities shrug off tariff risks. China tackles excess capacity. Malaysia cuts rates; Vietnam beats Q2 growth forecasts. US hits Brazil with tariffs. Romania tightens fiscally. AZ & Oman upgraded.
Closeup of the documents of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a budget reconciliation bill in the 119th United States Congress.
Weekly investor research

Noise vs. numbers: OBBBA + tariffs can deliver fiscal consolidation

US passes ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’. Israel-Hamas talks begin Doha. AI chip curbs eyed for Thailand/Malaysia. India data strong. Trump touts Vietnam deal. Argentina downplays peso. Chile left gains. IMF merges Egypt reviews Sept. Dubai unveils home scheme.
South America lit up by city lights.
The Emerging View

Latin American Equities

LatAm was EM's worst performer in 2024, but is rebounding sharply in 2025. Colombia leads YTD gains at 49%, followed by Mexico, Chile, Brazil, and Peru. With elections ahead and market-friendly shifts likely, investors see a cyclical opportunity.