Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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One executive runs up a red rising arrow while another falls along a blue declining arrow, symbolising market winners and losers over a city skyline.
Market Commentary

EM assets during easing cycles

After nine months of unchanged policy rates, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut by 25bps this September. Most market participants expect multiple rate reductions over the coming months. To put the Fed’s decision into context, we looked back at the impact...
Businessman cutting percentage sign with sword.
Weekly investor research

A new easing cycle bodes well for EM assets

Fed cut rates 25bps, more easing likely; Trump and Xi may meet in Oct; UK, Canada & Australia recognised Palestine; Sri Lanka credit upgraded; Argentina intervened to support peso; Brazil held Selic; Nigeria inflation fell to 20.1%.

Latest Insights

China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation
Weekly investor research

China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation

Hawkish holds/cuts in EM contrasted with dovish holds/cuts in DM. US economic growth softened in recent weeks, while EM growth remained resilient. The US is considering quadrupling tariffs on Chinese renewable technology imports. China’s Xi visited...
Two birds, one stone.
Weekly investor research

Two birds with one stone?: EM small caps

Short-term bond yields have a cap as rate hikes in the US are “unlikely”, supporting asset prices. A less hawkish message from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell drove stocks and bond prices higher last week. The US labour market is softening...
China flag with indicators
Weekly investor research

Chinese stocks breaking out as US stocks wobble

The JPY posted high volatility overnight as over-extended short JPY positions remain in place. Bank Indonesia hiked policy rates by 25bps in a surprise move, signalling dissatisfaction with the USD strength derived from JPY weakness. EU-China relations...
USA and Venezuelan Flag
Weekly investor research

Monetary policy divergence amid geopolitical volatility

The Fed walked away from cuts early in the summer, while the ECB remained in that camp. The US announced it would re-impose sanctions on Venezuela, but in a weaker format, a reflection of the current political realities. The US House of Representatives...
Maps of countries in Middle East
Weekly investor research

Iran launched an unprecedented strike against Israel

Israel reportedly suffered minimal damages from the telegraphed air strike from Iran. While the attack has raised the stakes in the Middle East, Iran signalled a willingness to de-escalate, a stance favoured by the United States (US).
Voter with Türkiye flag in background
Weekly investor research

Policy direction unchanged post local elections in Türkiye

Monetary policy turned more cautious across the US and several Emerging Market (EM) countries, improving the risk-reward dynamics for bonds. Oil and gold prices increased as geopolitical risks remained elevated. EM manufacturing sentiment improved...
Summer deck chairs
Weekly investor research

Ready for the summer

The European Central Bank (ECB), US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Bank of England (BoE) statements suggested they are all getting ready to cut policy rates in June. The central banks of Türkiye and Taiwan unexpectedly hiked policy rates, while...
Cairo pyramids
The Emerging View

The big picture behind Egypt’s big deal

Egypt’s currency macro rebalancing was the main Frontier Markets event of the month. The plan involved several bilateral and multilateral deals, and policy announcements that seemed disconnected at first but suggest a deeper strategic move with big...
Mount Fuji, Japan.
Weekly investor research

Will the Bank of Japan exit NIRP after eight years?

A central bank-heavy week, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) potentially departing from its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) after eight years. In the United States (US), investors will likely carefully analyse the statement, dot-plot estimates and...
Close up eyes with glasses looking at charts
Weekly investor research

All eyes on inflation data

Inflation rose above expectations in most Emerging Market (EM) countries. Inflation is at far from concerning levels, but may slow down the pace of rate cuts in a few countries in our view. Last week, US Treasury (UST) yields declined after the...
Egyptian pound notes
Weekly investor research

Frontier markets drive EM Sovereign debt returns

The G-20 talked up a soft global economic landing, despite many risks. Inflation rebounded in January for the US and surprised to the upside in the Eurozone in February, which led to a re-pricing on the number of policy rate cuts implied in interest...
Solar panels
The Emerging View

An EM ex-China manufacturing renaissance

Since its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China has posed formidable competition for other countries in the manufacturing sector. The country’s rapid ascent since the turn of the century has seen it emerge as the dominant force...
Virtual graphic data connect with AI.
Weekly investor research

Hawkish FOMC minutes meet AI exuberance

The minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were more hawkish than initially expected. Artificial Intelligence (AI) exuberance has brought Nvidia valuations to extreme levels, but value may yet be found across its Asian...
Voter on an waiving Indonesia flag background.
Weekly investor research

Prabowo’s landslide victory is positive in the short term

General Prabowo Subianto won the Indonesian presidential election in the first round. Domestic travel and tourism spending hit records during the Chinese New Year. China has been exporting deflation to the world, regardless of the state of the local...