Aerial view of the Christ, The Redeemer Monument and the Corcovado Mountain in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The ‘land of the future’ can’t wait much longer

Brazil’s vast natural resources have helped build a resilient economy, backed by a sophisticated financial system & a well-educated, hyperconnected population. However, persistent political volatility and inefficient public spending have hindered progress

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Temple at Jiufen Old Street in Taipei Taiwan
Weekly investor research

Taiwan dollar’s rally could signal further EMFX strength

US Q1 earnings strong; Q2 outlook weaker. US stagflation fears persist. Taiwan dollar rallies sharply. Oil falls on Saudi supply hike. Korean leader resigns for election. Colombia cuts rates; Brazil eyes tax reform. Simion leads Romania vote...
The United States Capitol in Washington
Weekly investor research

Erratic US policy stance still driving asset prices

Trump eased on China tariffs; EM assets rallied. IMF cut 2025 global growth to 2.8%. Kazakhstan defies OPEC+. India may retaliate vs Pakistan. IMF suspended Colombia credit. Hungary faces media probe. SA cancels VAT hike. ECB hints at more cuts.

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American economy
Weekly investor research

Year-end rally quietens political noise…for now

The year-end rally continued to be very strong with US Treasuries this November recording their strongest monthly performance since 1985. Elsewhere, however, sources of political risk persist. Oil continued to sell off following the OPEC announcement...
Road Narrow sign
Weekly investor research

The narrowing path

A solid November so far for market returns, but the path for an ongoing year-end large rally is narrowing. The respite in geopolitical tensions may also be short-lived. Israel agreed to a four-day cease fire in Gaza until Monday, but its Defence...
Ballot box and Argentina flag
Weekly investor research

Libertarian economist Javier Milei is the new President of Argentina

The war in Gaza is imposing an unbearable cost to both human life and the respective economies. Walmart voiced a cautious outlook on the US consumer. China’s Xi Jinping delivered a hopeful message at the APEC forum in San Francisco. Inflation declined...
Glass globe on financial newspaper
Weekly investor research

EM policy superiority recognised

Two articles from renowned economists highlighted Emerging Market (EM) policy superiority which has allowed EM local currency bonds to outperform Developed Market (DM) bonds over the last years. Indeed, inflation remained on a declining trend in most...
Finance investment stock market chart graph currency exchange global business
Weekly investor research

Yields lower, stocks higher… For longer?

A combination of events saw yields drop from elevated levels as stock prices benefited from lower real interest rates. South Korea’s short selling ban led stocks higher but will delay any upgrade to Developed Market (DM) status to 2025.
Oil pump on the background of the flag of Venezuela. Oil pump silhouette.
Weekly investor research

US temporarily removes sanctions on Venezuela

The US suspended for six months the financial sanctions imposed on Venezuelan oil and gas and secondary market trading of Eurobonds. The sanctions release was motivated by the tight supply on oil markets and the large number of Venezuelan immigrants...
Ballot box
Weekly investor research

Elections have consequences

The Israel-Hamas conflict remained the dominant theme in global macro. No major surprises from the IMF meetings in Marrakesh, where countries presented their fiscal and structural reform and several frontier countries worked on debt restructuring...
Multicolored powder dyes
Video

EM Equity - Ingredients for the next EM upcycle

Dhiren Shah (Lead Portfolio Manager of the Ashmore EM Equity Fund), and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research). During this live webinar they discussed the opportunities present in Emerging Market Equity.
Map showing Israel
Weekly investor research

Hamas Strikes Israel

Israel declared war on Hamas following an organised attack on the country, 50 years after the Yom Kippur War. A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) paper published last week suggests the global supply chain has lengthened since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Oil drums sitting over a bar graph
Weekly investor research

Slippery slope: Will oil keep driving rates higher?

Global oil markets experienced a bullish run towards the USD 100 per barrel level. High oil prices and increased supply of US Treasury (UST) bonds led to a strong sell-off in rates. Chinese economic data was better than consensus before the...
Picture of the world's continents in the clouds among the greenery
The Emerging View

Solving the Energy Transition paradox in Emerging Markets

The energy transition debate is maturing. The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to 2.0°C, ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels is imperative to avoid a challenging climate situation.
Indian banknotes
Weekly investor research

Indian Government Bonds: index inclusion matters

A hawkish dot-plot brought US interest rates higher, but risks are increasing. Disputes over Ukrainian grain exports increased tensions in Eastern Europe. JP Morgan announced it will include India in its Emerging Market (EM) Government bond index...
Sunny sky
Video

EM Local Currency Bonds: The dog days are over

Alexis de Mones (Portfolio Manager, Local Currency), and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research). During this live webinar they discussed the opportunities present in Local Currency Bonds.