Close-up river stream in forest.
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Flows to EM: The end of the beginning

As emerging market (EM) outperformance extends, investors are now frequently asking us about flows to EM assets. In this month’s Emerging View, we review data from Morningstar which confirms our answer: that net inflows have become a reality only since H2

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Weekly investor research

Weeks when decades happen

Reports say US/Israel struck Iran, killing Khamenei; oil +10% but markets calm. CNY travel record, spending middling; Koreans buy local stocks. Argentina labour reform passed; inflation beat in BR/MX/US; IMF reviews ok in Egypt.
Cityscape night view of Seoul, South Korea at sunset time.
Weekly investor research

Flows to EM assets pick up steam as Korean exports surge

EM inflows keep accelerating; Korean tech exports jump. US tariff uncertainty returns after IEEPA ruling; Fed minutes stay cautious with core PCE elevated. China to offer zero tariffs to 53 African countries from 1 May.
Artificial Intelligence chatbot assistant glowing on modern futuristic technology background.
Weekly investor research

AI driving EM stocks up and US stocks down

US data still suggests a “Goldilocks” backdrop as inflation cools; risk sentiment is shaky on AI fears but EM equities remain resilient. In EM, Brazil’s Lula has slipped to 45% approval and Mexico’s central bank held rates at 7.00% with a dovish tilt.

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Controlling inflation
Weekly investor research

Less Dovish or More Hawkish?

The disruption in global shipping from Houthi attacks in the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb may have a larger than expected impact, if continued...
Man putting ballot in a box during elections in Taiwan in front of flag
Weekly investor research

Taiwan: incumbent party wins election, but loses majority in Congress

Taiwan's Vice-President Lai Ching-te was elected President although the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its Congress majority. Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea caused a spike in shipping costs. Despite an upside US consumer price index (CPI)...
Seal of the Federal Reserve System
Weekly investor research

More dovish Fed boosts EM debt towards year-end

The December meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proved a pivotal moment for markets. Whilst the target policy rate was unchanged, the median forecast for the Fed funds rate at end-2024 fell from 5.1% in September to 4.6%, triggering...
Ashmore's outlook for 2024 in Emerging Markets
The Emerging View

2024 Outlook: Resilience, Tails, and Inflections

Global Macro Summary: Resilience: In 2023, GDP growth surprised to the upside in several Emerging Market (EM) countries and recovered in China. In 2024, EM ex-China should remain supported as the Chinese GDP soft-landing resumes. Developed Market (DM) gro
American economy
Weekly investor research

Year-end rally quietens political noise…for now

The year-end rally continued to be very strong with US Treasuries this November recording their strongest monthly performance since 1985. Elsewhere, however, sources of political risk persist. Oil continued to sell off following the OPEC announcement...
Road Narrow sign
Weekly investor research

The narrowing path

A solid November so far for market returns, but the path for an ongoing year-end large rally is narrowing. The respite in geopolitical tensions may also be short-lived. Israel agreed to a four-day cease fire in Gaza until Monday, but its Defence...
Ballot box and Argentina flag
Weekly investor research

Libertarian economist Javier Milei is the new President of Argentina

The war in Gaza is imposing an unbearable cost to both human life and the respective economies. Walmart voiced a cautious outlook on the US consumer. China’s Xi Jinping delivered a hopeful message at the APEC forum in San Francisco. Inflation declined...
Glass globe on financial newspaper
Weekly investor research

EM policy superiority recognised

Two articles from renowned economists highlighted Emerging Market (EM) policy superiority which has allowed EM local currency bonds to outperform Developed Market (DM) bonds over the last years. Indeed, inflation remained on a declining trend in most...
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Weekly investor research

Yields lower, stocks higher… For longer?

A combination of events saw yields drop from elevated levels as stock prices benefited from lower real interest rates. South Korea’s short selling ban led stocks higher but will delay any upgrade to Developed Market (DM) status to 2025.
Oil pump on the background of the flag of Venezuela. Oil pump silhouette.
Weekly investor research

US temporarily removes sanctions on Venezuela

The US suspended for six months the financial sanctions imposed on Venezuelan oil and gas and secondary market trading of Eurobonds. The sanctions release was motivated by the tight supply on oil markets and the large number of Venezuelan immigrants...
Ballot box
Weekly investor research

Elections have consequences

The Israel-Hamas conflict remained the dominant theme in global macro. No major surprises from the IMF meetings in Marrakesh, where countries presented their fiscal and structural reform and several frontier countries worked on debt restructuring...
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Video

EM Equity - Ingredients for the next EM upcycle

Dhiren Shah (Lead Portfolio Manager of the Ashmore EM Equity Fund), and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research). During this live webinar they discussed the opportunities present in Emerging Market Equity.