By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The AI Supercycle and Bottlenecks: A Multi-year Tailwind for EM

As AI compute demand scales, the worry has shifted from overbuilding to scarcity. Can energy and chip supply keep pace, or will bottlenecks throttle the capex cycle? We map the constraints and their implications for emerging markets.

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Weekly investor research

Oil down and risk assets up as US/Iran deal approaches

Risk assets rally and oil falls as a US/Iran deal nears. The ECB delivers its first rate hike in three years, US CPI lands in line as jobs surprise higher, Korean exports jump 46% year on year, and S&P upgrades Argentina to 'B-'.
Weekly investor research

US buyback engine sputters: Supply hits an overextended market

Record US tech issuance lands on an over-extended market of stretched valuations and positioning. Markets now price two Fed hikes ahead of Warsh's first meeting on 17 June, as India opens to foreign investors and South Korea moves to support the Won.
Video

WEBINAR: Emerging Markets: beyond the AI trade

Watch the replay: Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Dhiren Shah (Head of Emerging Markets Equity Strategy) discuss their views on EM opportunities, whether the AI trade has room to run and what it could mean for countries, sectors and stocks.

Latest Insights

Emerging view
The Emerging View

Weak Dollar policy

The US economy is becoming seriously unproductive and the Trump Administration faces an important choice: support American business with heterodox policies such as import tariffs or abandon the strong Dollar policy?
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Trump and EM

The threat of protectionism is on the rise, nowhere more so than in the United States, the erstwhile bastion of free markets.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Border adjustment

President-elect Donald Trump is threatening US and foreign corporations with new taxes on a daily basis in a clear sign that the risk of US protectionism is rising.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The rational fear of policy mistakes

Lengthy and fevered speculation preceded yesterday’s “comprehensive reassessment” by the BOJ and the Fed’s September decision on interest rates.