Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...
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One executive runs up a red rising arrow while another falls along a blue declining arrow, symbolising market winners and losers over a city skyline.
Market Commentary

EM assets during easing cycles

After nine months of unchanged policy rates, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut by 25bps this September. Most market participants expect multiple rate reductions over the coming months. To put the Fed’s decision into context, we looked back at the impact...
Businessman cutting percentage sign with sword.
Weekly investor research

A new easing cycle bodes well for EM assets

Fed cut rates 25bps, more easing likely; Trump and Xi may meet in Oct; UK, Canada & Australia recognised Palestine; Sri Lanka credit upgraded; Argentina intervened to support peso; Brazil held Selic; Nigeria inflation fell to 20.1%.

Latest Insights

Market commentary
Market Commentary

Second Chance Saloon

Emerging Markets equity investors have once again over reacted to Developed Market events.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

2018 EM fixed income outlook

2018 is likely to see strong inflows to EM local markets on the back of strong performance, good value and improving fundamentals.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The DM savings glut

In 2005 Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that a savings glut in EM explained the US current account deficit.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

EM risk-free return

Last night’s S&P downgrade of El Salvador’s credit rating to Selective Default makes this report on Emerging Markets (EM) external debt extremely timely.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Intra-EM trade

The view that Developed Market bonds are risk-free and that Emerging Markets (EMs) bonds are risky remains deeply entrenched.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

What’s down with the Dollar?

Quantitative Easing (QE) was the largest and most distortionary intervention ever made in global bond markets and it particularly favoured US markets.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Passive is active: the EM index problem

In a recent article about China’s inclusion in the MSCI benchmark index the Financial Times columnist John Authers made the following astute observation: “There is something ungainly in the way [China’s index inclusion] has been outsourced to MSCI..."
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Putting the world into global bond funds

Global bond funds have seen a dramatic rise in assets over the past 10 years, reflecting the desire of investors to be exposed to a broader, more diverse set of assets away from their home markets.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Where do broken bonds go?

As investors return to EM local markets on the back of strong performance and a solid outlook they will be forced to inject capital directly into EM economies.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Outlook for EM and global backdrop

Emerging Markets (EM) asset prices over-reacted to the downside in recent years, especially given that EM fundamentals held up far better than expected in the face of serious headwinds.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The Myth of EM FX pass-through

One of the common perceptions about EM is that inflation rises sharply when their currencies weaken.