Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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One executive runs up a red rising arrow while another falls along a blue declining arrow, symbolising market winners and losers over a city skyline.
Market Commentary

EM assets during easing cycles

After nine months of unchanged policy rates, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut by 25bps this September. Most market participants expect multiple rate reductions over the coming months. To put the Fed’s decision into context, we looked back at the impact...
Businessman cutting percentage sign with sword.
Weekly investor research

A new easing cycle bodes well for EM assets

Fed cut rates 25bps, more easing likely; Trump and Xi may meet in Oct; UK, Canada & Australia recognised Palestine; Sri Lanka credit upgraded; Argentina intervened to support peso; Brazil held Selic; Nigeria inflation fell to 20.1%.

Latest Insights

Elevated view of Jakarta's Skyline.
Weekly investor research

2025: Lights, Camera, Action!

2025 begins after a pronounced move higher in US real yields and term premium. Trump denied Wall Street Journal report that his tariff plans would be narrower and focus on key industries, leading to USD volatility today. Nine new countries, including...
Runner standing at the starting point with 2025 year.
Weekly investor research

Until next year…

‘Risk-off’ and higher rates after US Fed meeting caused a cross asset sell-off last week, including in EM. Ukraine assassinate Russian commander inside Moscow. Erdogan urges foreign countries to withdraw support for Kurdish fighters in Syria.
A box showing percentage up and down arrows.
Weekly investor research

Fed Funds lower, but 10-year higher: Can it last?

US 10-year Treasury yield 75bps higher since start of rate cuts. Israel continued to strike Syrian air defences and weapon depots, as Turkish-backed opposition assumed control. China’s Central Economic Work Conference signalled ongoing commitment to...
Political map of Syria with capital Damascus, national borders, most important cities, rivers and lakes.
Weekly investor research

Bashar al-Assad falls in two weeks after a 13-year Civil War in Syria

The impact on EM and global macro of the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Ukraine cease-fire discussions ongoing. Global PMI shows sentiment to manufacturing in EM improving. The Politburo vowed to stabilise real estate & equities and moved...
Year 2025 futuristic background. 2025 as a central core on motherboard.
The Emerging View

2025 Emerging Markets Outlook

The theme of our 2024 Outlook was a hit. Emerging market (EM) economies’ newfound resilience had more legs this year, despite a lacklustre performance from China. The positive effects of post-pandemic structural reforms and fiscal discipline have been...
Arctic Icebergs with sunset on Arctic Ocean in Greenland
Weekly investor research

The 2024 winner: Vote for change

Romania and Uruguay voted for change last weekend. The fact that both these countries have very different historical backgrounds and economic situations confirms the overarching anti-incumbency bias faced by most politicians today...
The New York Stock Exchange building on Wall Street in Manhattan.
Weekly investor research

Trump trades wobble

Stocks struggled and the US yield curve steepened as markets took back post-US election gains on higher inflation expectations. Trump’s choices for foreign policy positions were hawkish and have raised geopolitical risk at the margin. Attention now...
Construction work in Doha, Qatar
Live at the Sub-ICs

Qatar: Do investors risk myopia for a country with a vision?

The economic roadmap Towards the end of the 1990s, Qatar saw a step-change in the magnitude and sustainability of its economic growth based on a competitive LNG value chain with global reach. Qatar succeeded in scaling up, integrating downstream and...
Trump flag flying with the sky and clouds in the background.
Market Commentary

Trump 2.0: Implications for Emerging Markets

While Donald Trump’s election victory was far from a surprise, the strength of the mandate he won was impressive. Trump captured all seven of the pivotal swing states needed for Electoral College success, the Republicans flipped the Senate and are...
American flags near the Air & Space Museum in Washington, D.C.
Weekly investor research

EM markets resilient as dust settles on US election

Trump’s big win delivered the expected macro reaction; for one day. Geopolitical discussions begin with Trump and Zelensky, and (probably) Trump and Putin. Qatar request Hamas leaders leave Doha. China deliver RMN10tn in fiscal support for local...
Map of Iowa State.
Weekly investor research

Iowa poll shakes up Trump bets in markets

Softer US labour data contrasted with higher inflation, consumption and wider UK budget deficit, which kept yields under pressure last week. A surprising poll in Iowa showed Harris leading in a perceived ‘red’ state. China expected to unveil large...
A stunning sunset photo showcases offshore oil drilling in Huntington Beach, California, with vivid hues casting a glow on industrial equipment.
The Emerging View

The impact of oil prices on EM sovereign credit

Today, oil exposure among Emerging Market (EM) nations is very diversified. Of course, there are major EM oil exporters, but most countries are net energy importers. In weighted terms, only 17% of the JP Morgan index of EM sovereign bonds (EMBI GD) are...
Vibrant sunrise over the National Mall in Washington DC.
Market Commentary

Dispatch from DC

The Autumn IMF meetings present an opportunity for investors to engage with IMF authorities, central bankers, finance ministers, technocrats, political consultants, economist and peers. The state of the global economy and the main risks and...
An American flag flying on the Riverwalk late in the day with the Trump Tower in the background.
Weekly investor research

Trump trade shaping markets one week from US election

UST yields continued to climb higher on economic outperformance and ‘Trump trade.’ Key Chinese fiscal legislators announced they will meet between the 4-8th of November. Oil sold off 5% on Sunday evening, after Israel chose not to strike Iranian oil...
Sikkim India Tibet Plateau China
Weekly investor research

China’s policy “u-turn” reaffirmed

Higher US CPI and jobless claims led to a steepening of the yield curve. China shed some more light on stimulus plans, without revealing scope of fiscal expansion, yet. Korean bonds will enter the FTSE WGBI and Indian bonds on the FTSE EM GBI in Q4 2025