Close-up river stream in forest.
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Flows to EM: The end of the beginning

As emerging market (EM) outperformance extends, investors are now frequently asking us about flows to EM assets. In this month’s Emerging View, we review data from Morningstar which confirms our answer: that net inflows have become a reality only since H2

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Globe map showing the Middle East.
Weekly investor research

Weeks when decades happen

Reports say US/Israel struck Iran, killing Khamenei; oil +10% but markets calm. CNY travel record, spending middling; Koreans buy local stocks. Argentina labour reform passed; inflation beat in BR/MX/US; IMF reviews ok in Egypt.
Cityscape night view of Seoul, South Korea at sunset time.
Weekly investor research

Flows to EM assets pick up steam as Korean exports surge

EM inflows keep accelerating; Korean tech exports jump. US tariff uncertainty returns after IEEPA ruling; Fed minutes stay cautious with core PCE elevated. China to offer zero tariffs to 53 African countries from 1 May.
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Weekly investor research

AI driving EM stocks up and US stocks down

US data still suggests a “Goldilocks” backdrop as inflation cools; risk sentiment is shaky on AI fears but EM equities remain resilient. In EM, Brazil’s Lula has slipped to 45% approval and Mexico’s central bank held rates at 7.00% with a dovish tilt.

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Weekly investor research

US stocks down, EM stocks up

US stocks and the US dollar underperformed last week as economic activity slows in the US while EM stocks rebounded. China cut lending rates by 20bps. The Ukraine conflict remained at a stalemate as Russia downplayed the importance of Sweden and...
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Weekly investor research

China’s data weak, but leading indicators more encouraging

Finland and Sweden said they would like to join NATO. China’s economic data was much weaker than expected in April, but higher frequency data improved in May. Brazil’s Petrobras hiked diesel prices despite political pressures. Most Chileans said they...
Victory Day
Weekly investor research

No breakthrough on victory day

There was no breakthrough from Russia during victory day and no significant sanctions on Russia following the G7 meeting. Brazil hiked policy rate by 100bps to 12.75%, Czech and Poland hiked 75bps to 5.75% and 5.25% respectively while India hiked 40bps...
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Weekly investor research

Russia threatens to cut gas supplies to Europe

Russia announced it halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and said it repaid the Eurobonds before the end of the grace period. Brazilian consumer price inflation rose less than expected. The Chinese politburo sent a strong message of support for...
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'EM in 10' update - May 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our EM in 10 monthly video review.
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The USD bull trap and EM USD debt

Emerging market assets underperformed over the first four months of the year as market participants priced in a much more hawkish hiking cycle by the Fed. At the same time, higher interest rates differentials buoyed the greenback lead the US Dollar...
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Weekly investor research

Better than expected Chinese data, but peace talks stalled in Ukraine

Chinese economic activity was better than expected, but underlying sector data suggests weaker dynamics than meets the eye. Sri Lanka announced the suspension of debt service. Indian inflation surprised to the upside. Indonesian trade surplus rose...
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Market Commentary

Russia & Belarus index exclusion post-mortem

This piece reviews the background and impact of the exclusion of Russia and Belarus from the main Emerging Markets (EM) indices as well as the current market conditions and outlook for Russian and Ukrainian bonds.
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Weekly investor research

Global Manufacturing PMIs play into the stagflation narrative

Global Markit Manufacturing PMI indicators softened, as China underperformed due to targeted lockdowns in Shanghai, notably. The increase in ISM prices paid and the depressed level of supplier delivery times in the US Markit PMI provide further...
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The Emerging View

The case for EM in a multipolar world

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world. The economic...