Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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Federal Reserve - Central Banking
Weekly investor research

Weak US payrolls all but assure a September rate cut

Weak US payrolls point to a Sept Fed cut; US10Y ~4%. Senate set to confirm Stephen Miran as temporary Fed chair. French PM Bayrou likely ousted; Japan’s Ishiba resigns. OPEC+ to add 137k b/d in Oct. Poland cuts 25bp. Argentina midterms setback for Milei.
Images of the NANAY River and its large floodable forests that are home to a diversity of fauna and flora. It is a popular place for tourists to get away from the city and delve into nature deep in the Amazon rainforest of Peru.
Weekly investor research

Brazil’s inflation in decline

US data steady; focus shifts to jobs. Appeals court nixes “reciprocal tariffs” (SCOTUS pending). Ukraine ramps refinery strikes. Indonesia protests. Thailand PM dismissed. Brazil Aug deflation; Türkiye Q2 +4.8% growth; Egypt cuts rates 200bps.
The beautiful, colorful city of Oaxaca
Weekly investor research

More US policy drama, more EM outperformance

EM outperformance in Aug; US reflation vs EU deflation. Trump to fire Fed Gov Lisa Cook. FR PM Bayrou faces 8 Sep no-confidence. G7 little result. Bond funds +$97bn/4w. Argentina assets fall on scandal. Moody’s reviews PEMEX for upgrade after $12bn plan.

Latest Insights

Map showing Israel
Weekly investor research

Hamas Strikes Israel

Israel declared war on Hamas following an organised attack on the country, 50 years after the Yom Kippur War. A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) paper published last week suggests the global supply chain has lengthened since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Oil drums sitting over a bar graph
Weekly investor research

Slippery slope: Will oil keep driving rates higher?

Global oil markets experienced a bullish run towards the USD 100 per barrel level. High oil prices and increased supply of US Treasury (UST) bonds led to a strong sell-off in rates. Chinese economic data was better than consensus before the...
Picture of the world's continents in the clouds among the greenery
The Emerging View

Solving the Energy Transition paradox in Emerging Markets

The energy transition debate is maturing. The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to 2.0°C, ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels is imperative to avoid a challenging climate situation.
Indian banknotes
Weekly investor research

Indian Government Bonds: index inclusion matters

A hawkish dot-plot brought US interest rates higher, but risks are increasing. Disputes over Ukrainian grain exports increased tensions in Eastern Europe. JP Morgan announced it will include India in its Emerging Market (EM) Government bond index...
Sunny sky
Video

EM Local Currency Bonds: The dog days are over

Alexis de Mones (Portfolio Manager, Local Currency), and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research). During this live webinar they discussed the opportunities present in Local Currency Bonds.
New BRICs countries
Weekly investor research

Another BRICs in the Wall

The BRICS group of countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) announced the inclusion of several other countries. China announced further measures to boost growth (and stock prices). Thailand Parliament elected a new government, led by...
Election voting card
Weekly investor research

Room for fiscal conservatives in October LATAM elections

The US and Chinese economic surprise indices push markets into peak US optimism and peak China pessimism. US Treasury yields continue to rise, driven by real rates, under the twin effects of strong data and large Treasury issuance. China’s economic...
Rethinking TINA: The Emerging Eight
The Emerging View

Rethinking TINA: The Emerging Eight

The role of the human psychological cycle in driving stock and bond prices is well understood and pre-dates behavioural economics. There are elements that suggest we may be going through another period of ‘irrational exuberance’ as several long-term...
Colombian Peso
Market Commentary

How did the Colombian Peso become this year’s darling?

What is the best performing currency in 2023 so far? Against all odds and biases, the Colombian Peso (COP), which is up 16.8% against the USD year-to-date and 22.8% including the ‘carry’, or the interest rate differential earned by carrying long...
Electric car being charged.
Weekly investor research

EV buyers may be in DM, but its supply chain assets are in EM

The strong performance of equity markets last week was related to the market interpretation of the main central bank decisions, seeing ‘not hawkish’ as ‘dovish’, and confusion over the actions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Chinese stocks outperformed on...
Local currencies from around the world
The Emerging View

The case for local currency bonds “Si, se puede!”

Believe it or not, Emerging Markets (EM) local currency bonds have been outperforming global fixed income asset classes for the past 18-months. Most of the outperformance has been based on an early and more appropriate hiking cycle from EM central...