Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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The latest insights from our categories

Federal Reserve - Central Banking
Weekly investor research

Weak US payrolls all but assure a September rate cut

Weak US payrolls point to a Sept Fed cut; US10Y ~4%. Senate set to confirm Stephen Miran as temporary Fed chair. French PM Bayrou likely ousted; Japan’s Ishiba resigns. OPEC+ to add 137k b/d in Oct. Poland cuts 25bp. Argentina midterms setback for Milei.
Images of the NANAY River and its large floodable forests that are home to a diversity of fauna and flora. It is a popular place for tourists to get away from the city and delve into nature deep in the Amazon rainforest of Peru.
Weekly investor research

Brazil’s inflation in decline

US data steady; focus shifts to jobs. Appeals court nixes “reciprocal tariffs” (SCOTUS pending). Ukraine ramps refinery strikes. Indonesia protests. Thailand PM dismissed. Brazil Aug deflation; Türkiye Q2 +4.8% growth; Egypt cuts rates 200bps.
The beautiful, colorful city of Oaxaca
Weekly investor research

More US policy drama, more EM outperformance

EM outperformance in Aug; US reflation vs EU deflation. Trump to fire Fed Gov Lisa Cook. FR PM Bayrou faces 8 Sep no-confidence. G7 little result. Bond funds +$97bn/4w. Argentina assets fall on scandal. Moody’s reviews PEMEX for upgrade after $12bn plan.

Latest Insights

Controlling inflation
Weekly investor research

Less Dovish or More Hawkish?

The disruption in global shipping from Houthi attacks in the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb may have a larger than expected impact, if continued...
Man putting ballot in a box during elections in Taiwan in front of flag
Weekly investor research

Taiwan: incumbent party wins election, but loses majority in Congress

Taiwan's Vice-President Lai Ching-te was elected President although the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its Congress majority. Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea caused a spike in shipping costs. Despite an upside US consumer price index (CPI)...
Seal of the Federal Reserve System
Weekly investor research

More dovish Fed boosts EM debt towards year-end

The December meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proved a pivotal moment for markets. Whilst the target policy rate was unchanged, the median forecast for the Fed funds rate at end-2024 fell from 5.1% in September to 4.6%, triggering...
Ashmore's outlook for 2024 in Emerging Markets
The Emerging View

2024 Outlook: Resilience, Tails, and Inflections

Global Macro Summary: Resilience: In 2023, GDP growth surprised to the upside in several Emerging Market (EM) countries and recovered in China. In 2024, EM ex-China should remain supported as the Chinese GDP soft-landing resumes. Developed Market (DM) gro
American economy
Weekly investor research

Year-end rally quietens political noise…for now

The year-end rally continued to be very strong with US Treasuries this November recording their strongest monthly performance since 1985. Elsewhere, however, sources of political risk persist. Oil continued to sell off following the OPEC announcement...
Road Narrow sign
Weekly investor research

The narrowing path

A solid November so far for market returns, but the path for an ongoing year-end large rally is narrowing. The respite in geopolitical tensions may also be short-lived. Israel agreed to a four-day cease fire in Gaza until Monday, but its Defence...
Ballot box and Argentina flag
Weekly investor research

Libertarian economist Javier Milei is the new President of Argentina

The war in Gaza is imposing an unbearable cost to both human life and the respective economies. Walmart voiced a cautious outlook on the US consumer. China’s Xi Jinping delivered a hopeful message at the APEC forum in San Francisco. Inflation declined...
Glass globe on financial newspaper
Weekly investor research

EM policy superiority recognised

Two articles from renowned economists highlighted Emerging Market (EM) policy superiority which has allowed EM local currency bonds to outperform Developed Market (DM) bonds over the last years. Indeed, inflation remained on a declining trend in most...
Finance investment stock market chart graph currency exchange global business
Weekly investor research

Yields lower, stocks higher… For longer?

A combination of events saw yields drop from elevated levels as stock prices benefited from lower real interest rates. South Korea’s short selling ban led stocks higher but will delay any upgrade to Developed Market (DM) status to 2025.
Oil pump on the background of the flag of Venezuela. Oil pump silhouette.
Weekly investor research

US temporarily removes sanctions on Venezuela

The US suspended for six months the financial sanctions imposed on Venezuelan oil and gas and secondary market trading of Eurobonds. The sanctions release was motivated by the tight supply on oil markets and the large number of Venezuelan immigrants...
Ballot box
Weekly investor research

Elections have consequences

The Israel-Hamas conflict remained the dominant theme in global macro. No major surprises from the IMF meetings in Marrakesh, where countries presented their fiscal and structural reform and several frontier countries worked on debt restructuring...
Multicolored powder dyes
Video

EM Equity - Ingredients for the next EM upcycle

Dhiren Shah (Lead Portfolio Manager of the Ashmore EM Equity Fund), and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research). During this live webinar they discussed the opportunities present in Emerging Market Equity.