Yen surged on US Treasury activity amid benign US inflation. India-EU trade and Colombia/Chile fiscal reforms highlight EM shifts. Global diplomacy saw US-Ukraine-Russia talks, while Fitch boosted Türkiye and Gabon resumed IMF engagement.
Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where we discussed the outlook and opportunities for emerging markets hard currency sovereign debt in 2026.
Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.
Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum apply globally. US eyes cost cuts; MAG 7 dips. Russia-Ukraine peace plan at Munich. RBI cuts rates. Philippine VP impeached. Fitch affirms Korea’s AA-. Argentina to end FX controls by 2026. Japan wages surge.
Trump imposes new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Investors assess DeepSeek’s AI impact. India unveils 2025 budget. Political shifts in Argentina. Brazil commits to deficit cuts. Colombia plans tax reform. Panama affirms canal control.
This month’s EV quantifies the magnitude of fiscal stimulus which turns out to be surprisingly close to the market capitalisation surge over the past eight years. US exceptionalism now has a disruption narrative with DeepSeek...
EM gains as tariffs ease (except Colombia). DeepSeek impacts AI supply chains. Trump-Putin talk Ukraine. Strong Asian exports; Indonesia reforms. Argentina pushes markets. LATAM leftists under pressure. Türkiye cuts rates; Egypt plans Eurobonds...
EM assets rallied on US CPI data; Indonesia cut rates, South Korea held steady. Trump-Xi call signals diplomacy; Gaza ceasefire agreed. TSMC posts record profits. Argentina slows FX depreciation after surplus; Türkiye’s macro recovery stays on track.
Strong US jobs data lifted yields, pressuring equities. Oil topped $80, China hit a record trade surplus, and Moody’s upgraded Argentina’s foreign currency ceiling. Fitch boosted El Salvador’s credit rating. Key elections are set in Ecuador and Gabon.
2025 begins after a pronounced move higher in US real yields and term premium. Trump denied Wall Street Journal report that his tariff plans would be narrower and focus on key industries, leading to USD volatility today. Nine new countries, including...
‘Risk-off’ and higher rates after US Fed meeting caused a cross asset sell-off last week, including in EM. Ukraine assassinate Russian commander inside Moscow. Erdogan urges foreign countries to withdraw support for Kurdish fighters in Syria.
US 10-year Treasury yield 75bps higher since start of rate cuts. Israel continued to strike Syrian air defences and weapon depots, as Turkish-backed opposition assumed control. China’s Central Economic Work Conference signalled ongoing commitment to...
The impact on EM and global macro of the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Ukraine cease-fire discussions ongoing. Global PMI shows sentiment to manufacturing in EM improving. The Politburo vowed to stabilise real estate & equities and moved...
The theme of our 2024 Outlook was a hit. Emerging market (EM) economies’ newfound resilience had more legs this year, despite a lacklustre performance from China. The positive effects of post-pandemic structural reforms and fiscal discipline have been...
Bond yields moved sharply lower as markets priced in Scott Bessent’s sound economic plans. Mexican peso and Canadian dollar recovered after brief selloff, after tariff rhetoric from Trump was met with signs of cooperation from USMCA partners.
Romania and Uruguay voted for change last weekend. The fact that both these countries have very different historical backgrounds and economic situations confirms the overarching anti-incumbency bias faced by most politicians today...
Stocks struggled and the US yield curve steepened as markets took back post-US election gains on higher inflation expectations. Trump’s choices for foreign policy positions were hawkish and have raised geopolitical risk at the margin. Attention now...
The economic roadmap Towards the end of the 1990s, Qatar saw a step-change in the magnitude and sustainability of its economic growth based on a competitive LNG value chain with global reach. Qatar succeeded in scaling up, integrating downstream and...
While Donald Trump’s election victory was far from a surprise, the strength of the mandate he won was impressive. Trump captured all seven of the pivotal swing states needed for Electoral College success, the Republicans flipped the Senate and are...
Trump’s big win delivered the expected macro reaction; for one day. Geopolitical discussions begin with Trump and Zelensky, and (probably) Trump and Putin. Qatar request Hamas leaders leave Doha. China deliver RMN10tn in fiscal support for local...