EM assets keep outperforming as US jobs data softens. Powell faces DOJ subpoena. Trump ordered Fannie/Freddie to buy $200bn MBS, pushing 30y yields down. Iran protests lifted oil; US shielded Venezuela funds; Argentina $3bn repo; Japan snap poll talk.
US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.
Argentina’s government coalition received only one-third of the votes in mid-term nationwide elections. Inflation rose further in Brazil as the current political-economic juncture rhymes with 2002.
The RBA, Fed and BoE flip-flopped back to a dovish stance while the CNB and NBP hiked policy rates by a larger magnitude than expected. In contrast with DM, EM central banks are ahead of the curve in the task of controlling inflation.
Manufacturing PMIs were stronger than expected in Indonesia, India, Malaysia and Thailand (snippets). The front end of global DM curves widened significantly, leading to further “bear” flattening across global yield curves (Global backdrop).
Today we will be talking about the post-pandemic macro-economic environment. In particular, the outlook for global inflation and how Central banks should react to it.
The Central Bank of Russia hiked its policy rate by more than expected as Governor Elvira Nabiullina prioritised anchoring inflation expectations, leading to a strong performance across Russian assets.
The IMF upgraded its 2021 growth forecast for Emerging Market (EM) economies and downgraded Developed Markets (DM). JP Morgan announced Egypt and Ukraine are joining the main local currency bond index in Q1-2022.
A number of senior politicians had their financial affairs exposed by the release of the Pandora Papers, while the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, is under pressure after a report unveiled minor irregularities.
Emerging Markets (EM) Manufacturing PMI converged towards Developed Markets (DM). Brazilian exporters are hoarding US Dollars abroad due to political uncertainty. Chile’s Lower House approved another redemption from the pension system.
Ashmore’s Deputy Head of Research, Gustavo Medeiros, discusses China’s recent policy decisions and potential implications along with the broader outlook for the Emerging Markets.
DM central banks face a challenging trade-off between anchoring buoyed inflation back to their targets just as economic activity starts to slowdown, according to the latest PMI surveys.
Emerging Markets consumer prices index (CPI) inflation remains subdued as food prices are likely to decline into year-end. Primary issuance of Eurobonds increased last week. China announced further capital account liberalisation.
Global PMIs declined, dragged down by Covid-19 delta variant concerns as supply chain bottlenecks kept price pressures. The Brazilian Congress approved a tax reform as the government aims for a steep fiscal consolidation.
The botched withdrawal of Afghanistan marks the end of NATO’s Nation-Building efforts in the Middle East and Central Asia. Mixed political news in Peru.