By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for emerging market small cap equities

EM small caps are assumed to be the risky cousin of US small caps. The data says otherwise: nearly nine in ten are profitable, on half the forward multiple of the Russell 2000. We make the case for the asset class.

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Weekly investor research

Bulls in control and Dollar downside asymmetry

Cleaner positioning and the strongest US earnings season since 2021 have handed the bulls control. The bear case rests on long-end rates, hyperscaler leverage and an energy shock. We weigh both, and why the Dollar is the signal to watch.
Weekly investor research

Oil relief welcome before Wednesday’s FOMC

After 13 consecutive nights of strikes, the US paused its attack on Iran over the weekend, welcome relief ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. Elsewhere, Samsung and SK Hynix signed USD 950bn of US supply deals and Bank Indonesia's governor resigned.

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Market Commentary

Saudi Arabia’s Big Year

It was announced on 28 March that Saudi Arabia will be a constituent of the FTSE Emerging Markets index.
Market Commentary

The limits of protectionism

Last night the US government announced details of a USD 50bn package of tariffs on Chinese imports.
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Second Chance Saloon

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The Emerging View

2018 EM fixed income outlook

2018 is likely to see strong inflows to EM local markets on the back of strong performance, good value and improving fundamentals.
The Emerging View

The DM savings glut

In 2005 Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that a savings glut in EM explained the US current account deficit.
The Emerging View

EM risk-free return

Last night’s S&P downgrade of El Salvador’s credit rating to Selective Default makes this report on Emerging Markets (EM) external debt extremely timely.
The Emerging View

Intra-EM trade

The view that Developed Market bonds are risk-free and that Emerging Markets (EMs) bonds are risky remains deeply entrenched.
Market Commentary

What’s down with the Dollar?

Quantitative Easing (QE) was the largest and most distortionary intervention ever made in global bond markets and it particularly favoured US markets.