EM assets keep outperforming as US jobs data softens. Powell faces DOJ subpoena. Trump ordered Fannie/Freddie to buy $200bn MBS, pushing 30y yields down. Iran protests lifted oil; US shielded Venezuela funds; Argentina $3bn repo; Japan snap poll talk.
US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.
The signing of the phase one trade deal between the United States (US) and China and the ratification of USMCA by the US Senate reduced tail risks and boosted short term market sentiment.
Often underappreciated, the benefits of diversification in external debt were richly on display in 2019, when the asset class returned 15% despite significant volatility in a number of EM countries, including Argentina.
Lower interest rates in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis are increasing the affordability of real estate while rendering conventional liquid fixed income in developed economies (DM) less attractive.
The establishment of local bond markets has been the single most important structural change in Emerging Markets (EM) in the past quarter of a century.