Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Beautiful ocean sunset, with golden sky, dark blue sea and silhouette of ship, oil tanker on the horizon.
Weekly investor research

Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Dascht e Lut, Wüste, IranDasht-e Lut Iran, colored mountains Unesco world heritage site
Weekly investor research

Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
Legs and shoes on asphalt with the word "vote"
Weekly investor research

EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

Latest Insights

Beautiful ocean sunset, with golden sky, dark blue sea and silhouette of ship, oil tanker on the horizon.
Weekly investor research

Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Dascht e Lut, Wüste, IranDasht-e Lut Iran, colored mountains Unesco world heritage site
Weekly investor research

Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
Legs and shoes on asphalt with the word "vote"
Weekly investor research

EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.
Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.
Photograph of fountains along the tree-lined Bulevardul Unirii, a major thoroughfare in central Bucharest, with the Palace of the Parliament in the background at dawn.
Weekly investor research

US downgraded; Romania elects market-friendly candidate

EM assets regain momentum after US credit downgrade. US budget bill advances. China data soft. India inflation slows. Milei wins Buenos Aires. Political boosts in Ecuador, Romania; challenges in Colombia. Polish election tighter than expected.
Make Argentina great again
Market Commentary

Why Milei’s IMF deal could make Argentina great again

After President Milei’s rapid fiscal rebalancing, a fresh USD15bn disbursement from the IMF put Argentina in a position to slash its capital controls. Under the new FX regime, the peso - the world’s best performing currency last year - is holding firm.
Chinese and United States cargo containers
Weekly investor research

Habemus trade deal

US cut China tariffs to 30% for 90 days, sparking risk-on sentiment and Dollar rebound. Fed held rates steady. China eased policy further. India-Pakistan ceasefire. IMF lent $1.4bn to Pakistan. Peru cut rates. Ghana upgraded.
Temple at Jiufen Old Street in Taipei Taiwan
Weekly investor research

Taiwan dollar’s rally could signal further EMFX strength

US Q1 earnings strong; Q2 outlook weaker. US stagflation fears persist. Taiwan dollar rallies sharply. Oil falls on Saudi supply hike. Korean leader resigns for election. Colombia cuts rates; Brazil eyes tax reform. Simion leads Romania vote...
Aerial view of the Christ, The Redeemer Monument and the Corcovado Mountain in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The Emerging View

The ‘land of the future’ can’t wait much longer

Brazil’s vast natural resources have helped build a resilient economy, backed by a sophisticated financial system & a well-educated, hyperconnected population. However, persistent political volatility and inefficient public spending have hindered progress
The United States Capitol in Washington
Weekly investor research

Erratic US policy stance still driving asset prices

Trump eased on China tariffs; EM assets rallied. IMF cut 2025 global growth to 2.8%. Kazakhstan defies OPEC+. India may retaliate vs Pakistan. IMF suspended Colombia credit. Hungary faces media probe. SA cancels VAT hike. ECB hints at more cuts.
US bank note concept with a frowning Benjamin Franklin
Weekly investor research

The dollar keeps frowning

Trump postponed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days except against China. The US dollar index hit a six-month low as 10-year yields rose 50bps. Oil prices fell sharply to post-COVID lows, shifting the curve into contango. Zelenskyy claimed Chinese soldiers...
Outdoor diving board tower.
Weekly investor research

Trump says “tariff”. How high? Read on…

US tariff announcement due April 2. Trump frustrated over Ukraine talks. Japan resumes trade talks with S. Korea & China. China’s fertility rate drops. IMF’s $20bn aid for Argentina. Bolsonaro faces trial. Ghana’s debt falls. Le Pen guilty of embezzlement