Dark stylish compass with needle pointing to the year number 2026
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

2026 Emerging Markets Outlook

Disinflation, not debasement points to 'goldilocks' in 2026

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Seoul City skyline
Weekly investor research

Rising geopolitical risks, resilient EM equity performance

EM assets keep outperforming as US jobs data softens. Powell faces DOJ subpoena. Trump ordered Fannie/Freddie to buy $200bn MBS, pushing 30y yields down. Iran protests lifted oil; US shielded Venezuela funds; Argentina $3bn repo; Japan snap poll talk.
New 2026 year progress bar on digital lcd display.
Weekly investor research

Emerging Market assets start 2026 strong, Venezuela in focus

US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
Metropolitan Cathedral Mexico City
Weekly investor research

EM central banks ease as DM diverges: ECB on hold, BoJ tightens

ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.

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Deer stag sitting at desk
Weekly investor research

Spotting stagflation

US economic growth has surprised to the downside, inflation to the upside. A helicopter crash killed Iranian President Raisi. Israel’s Netanyahu faced more pressure from his cabinet. The US announced 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
Deforestation - An industry in the middle of the Amazon
Market Commentary

Rooting for change: Investor engagement and EM deforestation risk

The pivotal role of forest preservation in the battle against climate change is well understood. Forests provide a crucial carbon sink, the destruction of which will further accelerate global warming. Indeed, an estimated 15% of global carbon...
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Live at the Sub-ICs

EM’s role in the AI revolution: disruptor or disrupted?

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) evolves, it has the potential to be transformational for Emerging Markets (EM) through the advancement of economic development, by disrupting industries and, in some EM companies’ cases, by leading the global AI...
China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation
Weekly investor research

China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation

Hawkish holds/cuts in EM contrasted with dovish holds/cuts in DM. US economic growth softened in recent weeks, while EM growth remained resilient. The US is considering quadrupling tariffs on Chinese renewable technology imports. China’s Xi visited...
Two birds, one stone.
Weekly investor research

Two birds with one stone?: EM small caps

Short-term bond yields have a cap as rate hikes in the US are “unlikely”, supporting asset prices. A less hawkish message from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell drove stocks and bond prices higher last week. The US labour market is softening...
China flag with indicators
Weekly investor research

Chinese stocks breaking out as US stocks wobble

The JPY posted high volatility overnight as over-extended short JPY positions remain in place. Bank Indonesia hiked policy rates by 25bps in a surprise move, signalling dissatisfaction with the USD strength derived from JPY weakness. EU-China relations...
USA and Venezuelan Flag
Weekly investor research

Monetary policy divergence amid geopolitical volatility

The Fed walked away from cuts early in the summer, while the ECB remained in that camp. The US announced it would re-impose sanctions on Venezuela, but in a weaker format, a reflection of the current political realities. The US House of Representatives...
Maps of countries in Middle East
Weekly investor research

Iran launched an unprecedented strike against Israel

Israel reportedly suffered minimal damages from the telegraphed air strike from Iran. While the attack has raised the stakes in the Middle East, Iran signalled a willingness to de-escalate, a stance favoured by the United States (US).
Voter with Türkiye flag in background
Weekly investor research

Policy direction unchanged post local elections in Türkiye

Monetary policy turned more cautious across the US and several Emerging Market (EM) countries, improving the risk-reward dynamics for bonds. Oil and gold prices increased as geopolitical risks remained elevated. EM manufacturing sentiment improved...
Summer deck chairs
Weekly investor research

Ready for the summer

The European Central Bank (ECB), US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Bank of England (BoE) statements suggested they are all getting ready to cut policy rates in June. The central banks of Türkiye and Taiwan unexpectedly hiked policy rates, while...
Cairo pyramids
The Emerging View

The big picture behind Egypt’s big deal

Egypt’s currency macro rebalancing was the main Frontier Markets event of the month. The plan involved several bilateral and multilateral deals, and policy announcements that seemed disconnected at first but suggest a deeper strategic move with big...
Mount Fuji, Japan.
Weekly investor research

Will the Bank of Japan exit NIRP after eight years?

A central bank-heavy week, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) potentially departing from its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) after eight years. In the United States (US), investors will likely carefully analyse the statement, dot-plot estimates and...
Close up eyes with glasses looking at charts
Weekly investor research

All eyes on inflation data

Inflation rose above expectations in most Emerging Market (EM) countries. Inflation is at far from concerning levels, but may slow down the pace of rate cuts in a few countries in our view. Last week, US Treasury (UST) yields declined after the...
Egyptian pound notes
Weekly investor research

Frontier markets drive EM Sovereign debt returns

The G-20 talked up a soft global economic landing, despite many risks. Inflation rebounded in January for the US and surprised to the upside in the Eurozone in February, which led to a re-pricing on the number of policy rate cuts implied in interest...