Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Beautiful ocean sunset, with golden sky, dark blue sea and silhouette of ship, oil tanker on the horizon.
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Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Dascht e Lut, Wüste, IranDasht-e Lut Iran, colored mountains Unesco world heritage site
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Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
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EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

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The Fed delays the easing cycle while EM central banks press on

Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, and Ghana cut their policy rates. Egypt hiked by 200 basis points (bps), moving to an orthodox policy stance favoured by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as it stepped up its conversations to receive a fresh loan...
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Less Dovish or More Hawkish?

The disruption in global shipping from Houthi attacks in the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb may have a larger than expected impact, if continued...
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Taiwan: incumbent party wins election, but loses majority in Congress

Taiwan's Vice-President Lai Ching-te was elected President although the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its Congress majority. Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea caused a spike in shipping costs. Despite an upside US consumer price index (CPI)...
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More dovish Fed boosts EM debt towards year-end

The December meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proved a pivotal moment for markets. Whilst the target policy rate was unchanged, the median forecast for the Fed funds rate at end-2024 fell from 5.1% in September to 4.6%, triggering...
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The Emerging View

2024 Outlook: Resilience, Tails, and Inflections

Global Macro Summary: Resilience: In 2023, GDP growth surprised to the upside in several Emerging Market (EM) countries and recovered in China. In 2024, EM ex-China should remain supported as the Chinese GDP soft-landing resumes. Developed Market (DM) gro
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Year-end rally quietens political noise…for now

The year-end rally continued to be very strong with US Treasuries this November recording their strongest monthly performance since 1985. Elsewhere, however, sources of political risk persist. Oil continued to sell off following the OPEC announcement...
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The narrowing path

A solid November so far for market returns, but the path for an ongoing year-end large rally is narrowing. The respite in geopolitical tensions may also be short-lived. Israel agreed to a four-day cease fire in Gaza until Monday, but its Defence...
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Libertarian economist Javier Milei is the new President of Argentina

The war in Gaza is imposing an unbearable cost to both human life and the respective economies. Walmart voiced a cautious outlook on the US consumer. China’s Xi Jinping delivered a hopeful message at the APEC forum in San Francisco. Inflation declined...
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EM policy superiority recognised

Two articles from renowned economists highlighted Emerging Market (EM) policy superiority which has allowed EM local currency bonds to outperform Developed Market (DM) bonds over the last years. Indeed, inflation remained on a declining trend in most...
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Yields lower, stocks higher… For longer?

A combination of events saw yields drop from elevated levels as stock prices benefited from lower real interest rates. South Korea’s short selling ban led stocks higher but will delay any upgrade to Developed Market (DM) status to 2025.