City of Hamburg with river Elbe and Harbour, Germany
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Germany’s historic fiscal shift: The impact on emerging markets

Seismic US policy shifts have been advancing political and policy changes across the world in response. We offer an overview of the global macro context behind Germany’s historic fiscal reform, and the impact it can have on emerging markets (EM).

Subscribe to our insights

Subscribe and get notified as soon as we publish our content

The latest insights from our categories

US bank note concept with a frowning Benjamin Franklin
Weekly investor research

The dollar keeps frowning

Trump postponed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days except against China. The US dollar index hit a six-month low as 10-year yields rose 50bps. Oil prices fell sharply to post-COVID lows, shifting the curve into contango. Zelenskyy claimed Chinese soldiers...

Latest Insights

Data center server racks.
The Emerging View

The inconvenient truth behind US exceptionalism

This month’s EV quantifies the magnitude of the fiscal stimulus, which turns out to be surprisingly close to the market capitalisation (market cap) surge over the past eight years. US exceptionalism now has a disruption narrative with DeepSeek...
Popular AI virtual assistant apps on a smartphone
Weekly investor research

DeepSeek impacts AI industry and EM

EM had good performance last week as tariff threats receded (except for Colombia). Initial thoughts on the impact of DeepSeek on the AI supply chain and EMs...
Positioning driving price action.
Weekly investor research

Positioning driving price action ahead of Trump’s inauguration

EM assets rallied on US CPI data; Indonesia cut rates, South Korea held steady. Trump-Xi call signals diplomacy; Gaza ceasefire agreed. TSMC posts record profits. Argentina slows FX depreciation after surplus; Türkiye’s macro recovery stays on track.
Black wrecking ball hanging above wooden surface.
Weekly investor research

The US Treasury yield wrecking ball

Strong US jobs data lifted yields, pressuring equities. Oil topped $80, China hit a record trade surplus, and Moody’s upgraded Argentina’s foreign currency ceiling. Fitch boosted El Salvador’s credit rating. Key elections are set in Ecuador and Gabon.
Elevated view of Jakarta's Skyline.
Weekly investor research

2025: Lights, Camera, Action!

2025 begins after a pronounced move higher in US real yields and term premium. Trump denied Wall Street Journal report that his tariff plans would be narrower and focus on key industries, leading to USD volatility today. Nine new countries, including...
Runner standing at the starting point with 2025 year.
Weekly investor research

Until next year…

‘Risk-off’ and higher rates after US Fed meeting caused a cross asset sell-off last week, including in EM. Ukraine assassinate Russian commander inside Moscow. Erdogan urges foreign countries to withdraw support for Kurdish fighters in Syria.
A box showing percentage up and down arrows.
Weekly investor research

Fed Funds lower, but 10-year higher: Can it last?

US 10-year Treasury yield 75bps higher since start of rate cuts. Israel continued to strike Syrian air defences and weapon depots, as Turkish-backed opposition assumed control. China’s Central Economic Work Conference signalled ongoing commitment to...
Political map of Syria with capital Damascus, national borders, most important cities, rivers and lakes.
Weekly investor research

Bashar al-Assad falls in two weeks after a 13-year Civil War in Syria

The impact on EM and global macro of the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Ukraine cease-fire discussions ongoing. Global PMI shows sentiment to manufacturing in EM improving. The Politburo vowed to stabilise real estate & equities and moved...
Year 2025 futuristic background. 2025 as a central core on motherboard.
The Emerging View

2025 Emerging Markets Outlook

The theme of our 2024 Outlook was a hit. Emerging market (EM) economies’ newfound resilience had more legs this year, despite a lacklustre performance from China. The positive effects of post-pandemic structural reforms and fiscal discipline have been...
Arctic Icebergs with sunset on Arctic Ocean in Greenland
Weekly investor research

The 2024 winner: Vote for change

Romania and Uruguay voted for change last weekend. The fact that both these countries have very different historical backgrounds and economic situations confirms the overarching anti-incumbency bias faced by most politicians today...
The New York Stock Exchange building on Wall Street in Manhattan.
Weekly investor research

Trump trades wobble

Stocks struggled and the US yield curve steepened as markets took back post-US election gains on higher inflation expectations. Trump’s choices for foreign policy positions were hawkish and have raised geopolitical risk at the margin. Attention now...
Construction work in Doha, Qatar
Live at the Sub-ICs

Qatar: Do investors risk myopia for a country with a vision?

The economic roadmap Towards the end of the 1990s, Qatar saw a step-change in the magnitude and sustainability of its economic growth based on a competitive LNG value chain with global reach. Qatar succeeded in scaling up, integrating downstream and...
Trump flag flying with the sky and clouds in the background.
Market Commentary

Trump 2.0: Implications for Emerging Markets

While Donald Trump’s election victory was far from a surprise, the strength of the mandate he won was impressive. Trump captured all seven of the pivotal swing states needed for Electoral College success, the Republicans flipped the Senate and are...
American flags near the Air & Space Museum in Washington, D.C.
Weekly investor research

EM markets resilient as dust settles on US election

Trump’s big win delivered the expected macro reaction; for one day. Geopolitical discussions begin with Trump and Zelensky, and (probably) Trump and Putin. Qatar request Hamas leaders leave Doha. China deliver RMN10tn in fiscal support for local...
Map of Iowa State.
Weekly investor research

Iowa poll shakes up Trump bets in markets

Softer US labour data contrasted with higher inflation, consumption and wider UK budget deficit, which kept yields under pressure last week. A surprising poll in Iowa showed Harris leading in a perceived ‘red’ state. China expected to unveil large...
A stunning sunset photo showcases offshore oil drilling in Huntington Beach, California, with vivid hues casting a glow on industrial equipment.
The Emerging View

The impact of oil prices on EM sovereign credit

Today, oil exposure among Emerging Market (EM) nations is very diversified. Of course, there are major EM oil exporters, but most countries are net energy importers. In weighted terms, only 17% of the JP Morgan index of EM sovereign bonds (EMBI GD) are...