By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill, Simon Cooke
The Emerging View

Generating impact and returns through EM public debt markets

Global sustainability funding needs are overwhelmingly concentrated in emerging markets, yet impact capital still skews to developed markets. The September Emerging View sets out why EM public debt is the most scalable way to close the gap.

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Kevin Warsh the hawk

Oil eased as Hormuz flows recovered, but escalation risks stay high ahead of Trump and Xi’s Washington meeting. Plus: the BoJ hikes while the BoE holds, memory chips set to overtake non-memory, Brazil’s polls diverge and Kenya holds at 8.75%.
Weekly investor research

AI safety and surging energy prices trigger risk-off mood

Markets price a 90% chance of a Fed hike this week even as CPI details stay benign, while Saudi Arabia shuts its East-West pipeline. Plus: Korea weighs a Hormuz deployment, Brazil’s biggest inflation drop since 2022 and Dangote’s Kenyan refinery.
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Market Commentary

Second Chance Saloon

Emerging Markets equity investors have once again over reacted to Developed Market events.
The Emerging View

2018 EM fixed income outlook

2018 is likely to see strong inflows to EM local markets on the back of strong performance, good value and improving fundamentals.
The Emerging View

The DM savings glut

In 2005 Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that a savings glut in EM explained the US current account deficit.
The Emerging View

EM risk-free return

Last night’s S&P downgrade of El Salvador’s credit rating to Selective Default makes this report on Emerging Markets (EM) external debt extremely timely.
The Emerging View

Intra-EM trade

The view that Developed Market bonds are risk-free and that Emerging Markets (EMs) bonds are risky remains deeply entrenched.
Market Commentary

What’s down with the Dollar?

Quantitative Easing (QE) was the largest and most distortionary intervention ever made in global bond markets and it particularly favoured US markets.
The Emerging View

Passive is active: the EM index problem

In a recent article about China’s inclusion in the MSCI benchmark index the Financial Times columnist John Authers made the following astute observation: “There is something ungainly in the way [China’s index inclusion] has been outsourced to MSCI..."
Market Commentary

Putting the world into global bond funds

Global bond funds have seen a dramatic rise in assets over the past 10 years, reflecting the desire of investors to be exposed to a broader, more diverse set of assets away from their home markets.
The Emerging View

Where do broken bonds go?

As investors return to EM local markets on the back of strong performance and a solid outlook they will be forced to inject capital directly into EM economies.
The Emerging View

Outlook for EM and global backdrop

Emerging Markets (EM) asset prices over-reacted to the downside in recent years, especially given that EM fundamentals held up far better than expected in the face of serious headwinds.
The Emerging View

The Myth of EM FX pass-through

One of the common perceptions about EM is that inflation rises sharply when their currencies weaken.