Blue lake on a snowy mountains background and cloudy sky Torres del paine
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Latin America: Monroe Doctrine 2.0 amid a transition to the right

With politics shifting back towards the market-friendly right, earnings growth improving and the outlook for commodities becoming structurally bullish given the ongoing arms race for AI, defence and energy, Latin America is again back on investors’ radars

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Beautiful night scene of tokyo skyline
Weekly investor research

USD weakness, JPY strength and more EM outperformance

Yen surged on US Treasury activity amid benign US inflation. India-EU trade and Colombia/Chile fiscal reforms highlight EM shifts. Global diplomacy saw US-Ukraine-Russia talks, while Fitch boosted Türkiye and Gabon resumed IMF engagement.

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Sanctions over russia
Weekly investor research

Sanctions: intended and unintended consequences

The Russo-Ukrainian war is one of, and perhaps the most consequential conflicts since the end of World War 2. We examine the events on the ground, the announced sanctions and a first take on its potential impacts, both intended and unintended.
Flag of Russia and Ukraine
Market Commentary

An update on Russia/Ukraine

Since early November 2021, the United States has reported unusual Russian troop movements near the Ukrainian border. In late November, Ukraine said Russia had close to 90k troops around its borders in advance of an offensive attack. Moscow denied and...
Cracked brick wall painted with a Ukrainian flag on the left and a Russian flag on the right.
Weekly investor research

Geopolitics dominate the news flow

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine increased, but a diplomatic solution is still possible. Iran nears a deal with the West for the removal of sanctions. China’s inflation was lower than expected as the RMB role for foreign transactions increased.
American flags against the sky
Weekly investor research

The end of US stock market exceptionalism

Market price action signals the end of United States (US) stock market exceptionalism. Russia held cordial and constructive conversations with the US with the aim to de-escalate tensions on the Ukrainian border.
USA and China flag on coins and stock market chart.
Weekly investor research

EM stocks outperforming global stocks year-to-date

EM stocks outperformed on the back of a weaker US Dollar, reflecting the soft price action in US stocks and in spite of higher US Treasury yields. China’s real GDP growth rose +8.1% in 2021 despite mixed activity in December.
2022 Outlook
The Emerging View

Equity Outlook 2022: Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets (EM) have demonstrated their resilience during the greatest economic shock since the Global Financial Crisis. This was contrary to market expectations.
2022 Outlook
The Emerging View

Four mega-trends shaping the 2022 outlook and beyond

The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
La Moneda Palace in Santiago, Chile
Weekly investor research

Gabriel Boric elected President in Chile

China and Turkey eased policy rates, the first minimally, the latter repeating policy mistakes, while Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Hungary and Pakistan hiked policy rates. The centre-left candidate Gabriel Boric was elected as President in Chile.