By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for emerging market small cap equities

EM small caps are assumed to be the risky cousin of US small caps. The data says otherwise: nearly nine in ten are profitable, on half the forward multiple of the Russell 2000. We make the case for the asset class.

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Weekly investor research

Oil relief welcome before Wednesday’s FOMC

After 13 consecutive nights of strikes, the US paused its attack on Iran over the weekend, welcome relief ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. Elsewhere, Samsung and SK Hynix signed USD 950bn of US supply deals and Bank Indonesia's governor resigned.
Weekly investor research

The arrival of Kimi K3 tests investors’ faith in Jevons’ Paradox

Chinese open-weight model Kimi K3 raises questions over AI lab monetisation, testing investors’ faith in Jevons’ Paradox. The Korean memory stock unwind extends, US CPI turns negative and the Bank of Korea hikes for the first time in three years.
Weekly investor research

Hormuz hostilities and a memory stock correction

US-Iran hostilities push oil back to nearly USD 80 and Korean memory stocks fall in a positioning unwind. SK Hynix’s ADRs debut on Nasdaq, China’s central bank adds to gold, and Ukraine secures EUR 140bn in weaponry pledges at the Ankara NATO summit.

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Weekly investor research

Habemus trade deal

US cut China tariffs to 30% for 90 days, sparking risk-on sentiment and Dollar rebound. Fed held rates steady. China eased policy further. India-Pakistan ceasefire. IMF lent $1.4bn to Pakistan. Peru cut rates. Ghana upgraded.
Weekly investor research

Taiwan dollar’s rally could signal further EMFX strength

US Q1 earnings strong; Q2 outlook weaker. US stagflation fears persist. Taiwan dollar rallies sharply. Oil falls on Saudi supply hike. Korean leader resigns for election. Colombia cuts rates; Brazil eyes tax reform. Simion leads Romania vote...
The Emerging View

The ‘land of the future’ can’t wait much longer

Brazil’s vast natural resources have helped build a resilient economy, backed by a sophisticated financial system & a well-educated, hyperconnected population. However, persistent political volatility and inefficient public spending have hindered progress
Weekly investor research

Erratic US policy stance still driving asset prices

Trump eased on China tariffs; EM assets rallied. IMF cut 2025 global growth to 2.8%. Kazakhstan defies OPEC+. India may retaliate vs Pakistan. IMF suspended Colombia credit. Hungary faces media probe. SA cancels VAT hike. ECB hints at more cuts.
Weekly investor research

The dollar keeps frowning

Trump postponed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days except against China. The US dollar index hit a six-month low as 10-year yields rose 50bps. Oil prices fell sharply to post-COVID lows, shifting the curve into contango. Zelenskyy claimed Chinese soldiers...
Weekly investor research

Trump says “tariff”. How high? Read on…

US tariff announcement due April 2. Trump frustrated over Ukraine talks. Japan resumes trade talks with S. Korea & China. China’s fertility rate drops. IMF’s $20bn aid for Argentina. Bolsonaro faces trial. Ghana’s debt falls. Le Pen guilty of embezzlement
Weekly investor research

Türkiye’s political shenanigans are back

US tariff uncertainty persists but recent news was calmer. Early investor rotation from US after Germany’s policy shift. Türkiye intervened in TRY post-political shock. Argentina posts surplus, Brazil hikes 100bps. Colombia swaps finance minister.
The Emerging View

Germany’s historic fiscal shift: The impact on emerging markets

Seismic US policy shifts have been advancing political and policy changes across the world in response. We offer an overview of the global macro context behind Germany’s historic fiscal reform, and the impact it can have on emerging markets (EM).
Weekly investor research

EM assets resilient as US stocks enter technical correction

US stocks in correction; Bessent unfazed. ECB: Uncertainty higher than Covid. US, Ukraine propose 30-day ceasefire; Russia talks soon. Anti-authoritarian protests in E. Europe. China plans stimulus. Mexico delays tariff retaliation to Apr 2.
Weekly investor research

Tariff and geopolitics driving global macro

EM assets held up in February despite tariffs and geopolitics. Ukraine ceasefire odds rose as US-EU tensions drove change. India posted strong fiscal data; Malaysia advanced reforms, Indonesia faced doubts. Argentina tightened policy, Mexico reformed...
Weekly investor research

EM equity outperformance accelerates

EM stocks outperformed, led by China. Germany's coalition lacks a 2/3 majority. Qatar & Kuwait exit EMBI GD; LATAM gains. Zelenskyy open to stepping down. Korea & Taiwan exports signal downturn. Bolsonaro accused of coup. SA delays budget announcement.
Market Commentary

Unlocking the potential of frontier market debt

Traditional EM indices, such as the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified (EMBI GD), provide great yield enhancement for global fixed income portfolios. However, the high average duration of this index exposes it to volatility from global risk factors.