Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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Federal Reserve - Central Banking
Weekly investor research

Weak US payrolls all but assure a September rate cut

Weak US payrolls point to a Sept Fed cut; US10Y ~4%. Senate set to confirm Stephen Miran as temporary Fed chair. French PM Bayrou likely ousted; Japan’s Ishiba resigns. OPEC+ to add 137k b/d in Oct. Poland cuts 25bp. Argentina midterms setback for Milei.
Images of the NANAY River and its large floodable forests that are home to a diversity of fauna and flora. It is a popular place for tourists to get away from the city and delve into nature deep in the Amazon rainforest of Peru.
Weekly investor research

Brazil’s inflation in decline

US data steady; focus shifts to jobs. Appeals court nixes “reciprocal tariffs” (SCOTUS pending). Ukraine ramps refinery strikes. Indonesia protests. Thailand PM dismissed. Brazil Aug deflation; Türkiye Q2 +4.8% growth; Egypt cuts rates 200bps.
The beautiful, colorful city of Oaxaca
Weekly investor research

More US policy drama, more EM outperformance

EM outperformance in Aug; US reflation vs EU deflation. Trump to fire Fed Gov Lisa Cook. FR PM Bayrou faces 8 Sep no-confidence. G7 little result. Bond funds +$97bn/4w. Argentina assets fall on scandal. Moody’s reviews PEMEX for upgrade after $12bn plan.

Latest Insights

Old book laying on yellow paper Isolated gold background
The Emerging View

The untold story of improving EM fundamentals

Since the Covid shock, high global inflation, aggressive US fiscal expansion and a strong dollar have created a challenging environment for Emerging Market (EM) countries.
Businessman looking at three interlocking globes.
Weekly investor research

Political uncertainties from DM countries in focus

Geopolitical uncertainties abound after G-10 central banks start a tentative easing cycle. The US and global economies remain very imbalanced. China announced a monetary policy framework overhaul. Argentina delivered on fiscal consolidation and reforms…
Parliament, South Africa
Live at the Sub-ICs

Elections in South Africa: A new GNU

It’s been exactly 30 years since then-President Nelson Mandela enabled South Africa’s transition from an apartheid white-minority government to a democratically-elected government by bringing several political parties together to form a...
AI Generated - An analyst diligently investing based on economic data and ignoring noise from poor forecasts.
Weekly investor research

Lower inflation is the signal, random dots on a chart is noise.

Global stock volatility increased due to the French snap elections, the Fed’s hawkish tone, and deteriorating economic data. EM stocks were supported by Asia. Global bond yields declined after lower US inflation data. The EU announced tariffs on...
A transparent ballot box in front of a illuminated map of the world.
Weekly investor research

Elections still dominate the macro calendar

A landslide victory in Mexico led to higher market volatility as it raised constitutional risks, while coalition governments in South Africa and India led to a more muted market response. The IMF struck deals with Zambia, Ukraine, and Ecuador.
Colourful overlapping silhouettes of people voting.
Weekly investor research

Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico dominate the agenda.

FOMC minutes’ more hawkish tone led to a re-pricing of rate cut odds in September. Flash PMIs showed stronger service sector, booming India. Taiwan geopolitical ‘noise’ increased last week on the new government inauguration. Israel’s offensive in Rafah...
Middle East and Global Geopolitics: When it rains, it pours.
The Emerging View

Middle East and Global Geopolitics: When it rains, it pours.

The heaviest rainfall in 75 years in Dubai is an unlikely analogy to the current state of geopolitical affairs in the Middle East. A few years ago, the prospect of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel would have brought chills to analysts’ spines.
Deer stag sitting at desk
Weekly investor research

Spotting stagflation

US economic growth has surprised to the downside, inflation to the upside. A helicopter crash killed Iranian President Raisi. Israel’s Netanyahu faced more pressure from his cabinet. The US announced 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
Deforestation - An industry in the middle of the Amazon
Market Commentary

Rooting for change: Investor engagement and EM deforestation risk

The pivotal role of forest preservation in the battle against climate change is well understood. Forests provide a crucial carbon sink, the destruction of which will further accelerate global warming. Indeed, an estimated 15% of global carbon...
AI concept with brain
Live at the Sub-ICs

EM’s role in the AI revolution: disruptor or disrupted?

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) evolves, it has the potential to be transformational for Emerging Markets (EM) through the advancement of economic development, by disrupting industries and, in some EM companies’ cases, by leading the global AI...
China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation
Weekly investor research

China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation

Hawkish holds/cuts in EM contrasted with dovish holds/cuts in DM. US economic growth softened in recent weeks, while EM growth remained resilient. The US is considering quadrupling tariffs on Chinese renewable technology imports. China’s Xi visited...
Two birds, one stone.
Weekly investor research

Two birds with one stone?: EM small caps

Short-term bond yields have a cap as rate hikes in the US are “unlikely”, supporting asset prices. A less hawkish message from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell drove stocks and bond prices higher last week. The US labour market is softening...
China flag with indicators
Weekly investor research

Chinese stocks breaking out as US stocks wobble

The JPY posted high volatility overnight as over-extended short JPY positions remain in place. Bank Indonesia hiked policy rates by 25bps in a surprise move, signalling dissatisfaction with the USD strength derived from JPY weakness. EU-China relations...