A decade of tech-driven US stock market outperformance has contrasted with tepid returns for Emerging Market (EM) stock indices. But past returns are not an indicator of future performance, and the drivers of markets over the next decade will be quite different from the ones over the last.

We see four pillars supporting the thesis for a new bull cycle in EM equities: improving macroeconomic fundamentals, an earnings cycle, a peak in the US dollar, and structural trends such as the energy transition and AI.