EM local bonds stayed strong despite choppy markets, as UK/German policy stayed on a consolidation/investment path. India and South Korea surprised with strong growth, while EM sovereigns like Zambia and Qatar saw rating support.
Often underappreciated, the benefits of diversification in external debt were richly on display in 2019, when the asset class returned 15% despite significant volatility in a number of EM countries, including Argentina.
Lower interest rates in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis are increasing the affordability of real estate while rendering conventional liquid fixed income in developed economies (DM) less attractive.
The establishment of local bond markets has been the single most important structural change in Emerging Markets (EM) in the past quarter of a century.
The case for Emerging Markets external debt is solid. The long-term risk-reward has been and remains compelling. The outlook over the medium-term also favours the asset class as the unwinding of distortions in global bond markets attributable to Quantitat