By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

EM Sovereign Debt: The ultra-marathon runner goes on

Inflation has peaked, the capex supercycle rolls on, and EM fundamentals keep improving. We explain why EM sovereign debt, yielding close to 7%, remains one of the most attractively valued asset classes today.

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WEBINAR: EM Sovereign Debt: The yields are all-right

Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Christian Schniewind (Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Debt) discuss their views on EM sovereign debt dynamics.
Weekly investor research

Peak hawkishness

Oil at USD 70 a barrel and softer US payrolls may signal peak hawkishness. The semiconductor rally takes a breather, the World Bank upgrades Vietnam to upper-middle-income status, Brazil lifts its 2026 inflation forecast and Colombia hikes rates to 12.0%.
Weekly investor research

Falling oil prices bring nominal rates lower and real rates higher

Falling oil prices are pulling inflation expectations and nominal rates lower, while resilient US growth lifts real rates higher. We also cover dramatic semiconductor volatility, record Korean chipmaker capex and Vietnam's expansionary fiscal plans.

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Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The Classic EM risk roll-down

The classic EM risk roll-down is now on full display with Chinese stocks outperforming on the back of stronger than expected economic data.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The China Witch Hunt

The common characterisation of US-China relations as a new Cold War is wrong.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Stress testing EM sovereign external debt

The coronavirus outbreak was an unprecedented shock to the global economy, which experienced the fastest and deepest recession outside times of war.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

US-China tensions increase

China’s National People’s Congress approved new security legislation for Hong Kong.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Macroeconomic control regimes

Everyone knows why the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc countries lost the Cold War: economics.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The well-meaning misguided G20 proposal

The recently launched G20 initiative to provide debt relief for poorer Emerging Markets (EM) countries may be well-meaning, but it is also seriously misguided. In particular, the proposal fails on two counts.