Strait of Hormuz
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The Strait of Hormuz & the Vix shock

Emerging View examines the Strait of Hormuz tail-risk, rising energy prices and supply strains, comparing today’s backdrop with past oil shocks and assessing what the Iran-US conflict could mean for emerging market assets.

Subscribe to our insights

Subscribe and get notified as soon as we publish our content

The latest insights from our categories

Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz with white graphic lines representing global shipping lanes and maritime traffic between the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
Weekly investor research

Market relief as Trump signals progress in Iran negotiations

Trump gave Iran a short Hormuz ultimatum before a brief extension, as Iran hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan. Major central banks held rates with hawkish bias on energy risks, while EM policy diverged amid fuel, trade and election strains.
View across the Strait of Hormuz toward rugged mountains of the Musandam Peninsula in Oman. Small boats rest on the calm water beneath the arid landscape of the northern Arabian Peninsula.
Weekly investor research

Strait of Hormuz disruption enters third week

Oil shock eased as Brent fell back below USD 100, but Hormuz disruption still hit supply and reserves. Brazil retail surprised positively, while Egypt saw record outflows and political strains deepened in Mexico and Brazil.

Latest Insights

Emerging view
The Emerging View

The China Witch Hunt

The common characterisation of US-China relations as a new Cold War is wrong.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Stress testing EM sovereign external debt

The coronavirus outbreak was an unprecedented shock to the global economy, which experienced the fastest and deepest recession outside times of war.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

US-China tensions increase

China’s National People’s Congress approved new security legislation for Hong Kong.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Macroeconomic control regimes

Everyone knows why the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc countries lost the Cold War: economics.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The well-meaning misguided G20 proposal

The recently launched G20 initiative to provide debt relief for poorer Emerging Markets (EM) countries may be well-meaning, but it is also seriously misguided. In particular, the proposal fails on two counts.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The case for a global macro-prudential policy

The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ EM countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of  our time.