Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Beautiful ocean sunset, with golden sky, dark blue sea and silhouette of ship, oil tanker on the horizon.
Weekly investor research

Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Dascht e Lut, Wüste, IranDasht-e Lut Iran, colored mountains Unesco world heritage site
Weekly investor research

Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
Legs and shoes on asphalt with the word "vote"
Weekly investor research

EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

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Beware of Big Fiscal

Picture yourself in charge of the government of a rich country.
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The 2019-2023 EM fixed income outlook The Emerging View

Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income should deliver compounded returns ranging from 30% to 60% in Dollar terms over the 2019-2023 investment horizon as markets revert to unwinding the so-called QE trades
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US late cycle dynamics and EM bonds

The recent volatility in US stocks may be a warning that the US business cycle expansion is moving into its late stages.
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Convergence, Big Time

A new study shows strong empirical evidence in favour of Emerging Markets (EM) economic convergence, which is arguably the single most important fundamental rationale for allocating to the EM asset class.
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Déjà vu 2002

The 2018 sell-off in EM local markets is more than a mere conventional ‘buy the dip’ opportunity.
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The EM equity universe: 7 implications of evolution

The size of the Emerging Markets (EM) equity universe is significant. It is evolving quickly and becoming more sophisticated as EM broaden, deepen and liberalise, better reflecting their underlying economic growth drivers.
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Saudi Arabia’s Big Year

It was announced on 28 March that Saudi Arabia will be a constituent of the FTSE Emerging Markets index.
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The limits of protectionism

Last night the US government announced details of a USD 50bn package of tariffs on Chinese imports.