Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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Oil rig production platforms at sea
Weekly investor research

Oil goes contango

US private-credit failures lift risk; oil flips to contango; Trump reverses Ukraine Tomahawks; Israel-Hamas truce collapses after 2 Israeli soldiers shot; China credit weak; S Korea tightens property; US $40bn for Argentina; Mexico eyes excise hikes.
Spaced mixture of mine, mining ores, commodities, metals, coal. Background concept, texture, rocks. Variety, mixed, many, multi-colored, colorful.
Weekly investor research

China plays its trump card (rare earths); Trump replays his (tariffs)

China tightens rare-earth exports; Trump eyes 100% tariffs. US shutdown ongoing. Oil falls; Gaza ceasefire. China exports firm, domestic/property weak. $20bn US-Argentina swap. Brazil tax reform; inflation down. Kazakhstan +150bps. Egypt & Ghana upgrades.

Latest Insights

Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The Classic EM risk roll-down

The classic EM risk roll-down is now on full display with Chinese stocks outperforming on the back of stronger than expected economic data.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The China Witch Hunt

The common characterisation of US-China relations as a new Cold War is wrong.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Stress testing EM sovereign external debt

The coronavirus outbreak was an unprecedented shock to the global economy, which experienced the fastest and deepest recession outside times of war.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

US-China tensions increase

China’s National People’s Congress approved new security legislation for Hong Kong.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Macroeconomic control regimes

Everyone knows why the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc countries lost the Cold War: economics.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The well-meaning misguided G20 proposal

The recently launched G20 initiative to provide debt relief for poorer Emerging Markets (EM) countries may be well-meaning, but it is also seriously misguided. In particular, the proposal fails on two counts.