Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

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Geopolitical risks spike again

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EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

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The final shock

Lebanon announced a moratorium on its sovereign debt.
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Volatility and opportunity

Ecuadorian bonds experienced considerable price volatility due to inaccurate journalism.
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Chinese bonds deliver in bear markets

Chinese local currency government bonds are entering JP Morgan’s EM local bond index, the GBI-EM GD, at the end of this month.
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The power of carry

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