By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

EM Sovereign Debt: The ultra-marathon runner goes on

Inflation has peaked, the capex supercycle rolls on, and EM fundamentals keep improving. We explain why EM sovereign debt, yielding close to 7%, remains one of the most attractively valued asset classes today.

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WEBINAR: EM Sovereign Debt: The yields are all-right

Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Christian Schniewind (Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Debt) discuss their views on EM sovereign debt dynamics.
Weekly investor research

Peak hawkishness

Oil at USD 70 a barrel and softer US payrolls may signal peak hawkishness. The semiconductor rally takes a breather, the World Bank upgrades Vietnam to upper-middle-income status, Brazil lifts its 2026 inflation forecast and Colombia hikes rates to 12.0%.
Weekly investor research

Falling oil prices bring nominal rates lower and real rates higher

Falling oil prices are pulling inflation expectations and nominal rates lower, while resilient US growth lifts real rates higher. We also cover dramatic semiconductor volatility, record Korean chipmaker capex and Vietnam's expansionary fiscal plans.

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Market commentary
Market Commentary

The case for a global macro-prudential policy

The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ EM countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of  our time.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The merits of Ecuador’s approach

Ecuador has put forward a plan for dealing with an unprecedented triple shock of lower oil prices, coronavirus and loss of access to financial markets.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The final shock

Lebanon announced a moratorium on its sovereign debt.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Volatility and opportunity

Ecuadorian bonds experienced considerable price volatility due to inaccurate journalism.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Chinese bonds deliver in bear markets

Chinese local currency government bonds are entering JP Morgan’s EM local bond index, the GBI-EM GD, at the end of this month.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The option value of waiting

High levels of uncertainty are not only associated with a scarcity of facts, but also with high trading costs.