Strait of Hormuz
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The Strait of Hormuz & the Vix shock

Emerging View examines the Strait of Hormuz tail-risk, rising energy prices and supply strains, comparing today’s backdrop with past oil shocks and assessing what the Iran-US conflict could mean for emerging market assets.

Subscribe to our insights

Subscribe and get notified as soon as we publish our content

The latest insights from our categories

Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz with white graphic lines representing global shipping lanes and maritime traffic between the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
Weekly investor research

Market relief as Trump signals progress in Iran negotiations

Trump gave Iran a short Hormuz ultimatum before a brief extension, as Iran hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan. Major central banks held rates with hawkish bias on energy risks, while EM policy diverged amid fuel, trade and election strains.
View across the Strait of Hormuz toward rugged mountains of the Musandam Peninsula in Oman. Small boats rest on the calm water beneath the arid landscape of the northern Arabian Peninsula.
Weekly investor research

Strait of Hormuz disruption enters third week

Oil shock eased as Brent fell back below USD 100, but Hormuz disruption still hit supply and reserves. Brazil retail surprised positively, while Egypt saw record outflows and political strains deepened in Mexico and Brazil.

Latest Insights

Emerging view
The Emerging View

The case for EM external debt

The case for Emerging Markets external debt is solid. The long-term risk-reward has been and remains compelling. The outlook over the medium-term also favours the asset class as the unwinding of distortions in global bond markets attributable to Quantitat
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Beware of Big Fiscal

Picture yourself in charge of the government of a rich country.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The 2019-2023 EM fixed income outlook The Emerging View

Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income should deliver compounded returns ranging from 30% to 60% in Dollar terms over the 2019-2023 investment horizon as markets revert to unwinding the so-called QE trades
Emerging view
The Emerging View

US late cycle dynamics and EM bonds

The recent volatility in US stocks may be a warning that the US business cycle expansion is moving into its late stages.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Convergence, Big Time

A new study shows strong empirical evidence in favour of Emerging Markets (EM) economic convergence, which is arguably the single most important fundamental rationale for allocating to the EM asset class.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Déjà vu 2002

The 2018 sell-off in EM local markets is more than a mere conventional ‘buy the dip’ opportunity.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The EM equity universe: 7 implications of evolution

The size of the Emerging Markets (EM) equity universe is significant. It is evolving quickly and becoming more sophisticated as EM broaden, deepen and liberalise, better reflecting their underlying economic growth drivers.