By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

EM Sovereign Debt: The ultra-marathon runner goes on

Inflation has peaked, the capex supercycle rolls on, and EM fundamentals keep improving. We explain why EM sovereign debt, yielding close to 7%, remains one of the most attractively valued asset classes today.

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WEBINAR: EM Sovereign Debt: The yields are all-right

Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Christian Schniewind (Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Debt) discuss their views on EM sovereign debt dynamics.
Weekly investor research

Peak hawkishness

Oil at USD 70 a barrel and softer US payrolls may signal peak hawkishness. The semiconductor rally takes a breather, the World Bank upgrades Vietnam to upper-middle-income status, Brazil lifts its 2026 inflation forecast and Colombia hikes rates to 12.0%.
Weekly investor research

Falling oil prices bring nominal rates lower and real rates higher

Falling oil prices are pulling inflation expectations and nominal rates lower, while resilient US growth lifts real rates higher. We also cover dramatic semiconductor volatility, record Korean chipmaker capex and Vietnam's expansionary fiscal plans.

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Emerging view
The Emerging View

The case for EM local currency debt

The establishment of local bond markets has been the single most important structural change in Emerging Markets (EM) in the past quarter of a century.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The case for EM external debt

The case for Emerging Markets external debt is solid. The long-term risk-reward has been and remains compelling. The outlook over the medium-term also favours the asset class as the unwinding of distortions in global bond markets attributable to Quantitat
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Beware of Big Fiscal

Picture yourself in charge of the government of a rich country.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The 2019-2023 EM fixed income outlook The Emerging View

Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income should deliver compounded returns ranging from 30% to 60% in Dollar terms over the 2019-2023 investment horizon as markets revert to unwinding the so-called QE trades
Emerging view
The Emerging View

US late cycle dynamics and EM bonds

The recent volatility in US stocks may be a warning that the US business cycle expansion is moving into its late stages.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Convergence, Big Time

A new study shows strong empirical evidence in favour of Emerging Markets (EM) economic convergence, which is arguably the single most important fundamental rationale for allocating to the EM asset class.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Déjà vu 2002

The 2018 sell-off in EM local markets is more than a mere conventional ‘buy the dip’ opportunity.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The EM equity universe: 7 implications of evolution

The size of the Emerging Markets (EM) equity universe is significant. It is evolving quickly and becoming more sophisticated as EM broaden, deepen and liberalise, better reflecting their underlying economic growth drivers.