Blue lake on a snowy mountains background and cloudy sky Torres del paine
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Latin America: Monroe Doctrine 2.0 amid a transition to the right

With politics shifting back towards the market-friendly right, earnings growth improving and the outlook for commodities becoming structurally bullish given the ongoing arms race for AI, defence and energy, Latin America is again back on investors’ radars

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USD weakness, JPY strength and more EM outperformance

Yen surged on US Treasury activity amid benign US inflation. India-EU trade and Colombia/Chile fiscal reforms highlight EM shifts. Global diplomacy saw US-Ukraine-Russia talks, while Fitch boosted Türkiye and Gabon resumed IMF engagement.

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EM and the big Biden growth rotation

In addition to bridging deep social divisions in American society, President Joe Biden faces two important policy challenges. One is to eradicate coronavirus. The other is to turn the economy and voter sentiment.
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Vaccine developments, big improvements in economic activity and more benign geopolitics bode very well for returns across EM markets in 2021, notably for EM equities.
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EM IG sovereign bonds (for the risk averse)

The 2020 Triple Shock of coronavirus, crashing commodity prices and spread widening reminded many investors that segments of Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income can be extremely volatile during bouts of risk aversion.