Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Beautiful ocean sunset, with golden sky, dark blue sea and silhouette of ship, oil tanker on the horizon.
Weekly investor research

Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Dascht e Lut, Wüste, IranDasht-e Lut Iran, colored mountains Unesco world heritage site
Weekly investor research

Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
Legs and shoes on asphalt with the word "vote"
Weekly investor research

EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

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Aerial view on country road through the mixed forest in autumn colours.
Equities

Investing in Emerging Markets excluding China

China has the world’s second largest economy, and the country’s rise to prominence has been rapid. This has triggered some investors to consider China and Emerging Markets (EM) ex-China separately, similar to other dominant global powers like the US...
Aerial view Crude oil tanker under cargo operations on typical shore station with clearly visible mechanical loading arms and pipeline infrastructure.
Weekly investor research

EM spreads tighten as yields and oil go higher

Sharp increase in yields post strong labour market report and increase in oil prices. Chinese stocks outperform again ahead of end of Golden Week holiday. Iran missile strikes against Israel targeted civilian areas, further escalating the regional..
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Don’t stand in the way when China goes big

PBoC cut policy rates by 20bps, reserve requirement ratio by 50bps, RMB 700bn allocated for stock buybacks. Politburo pledged to support the housing market and signalled fiscal support. Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah...
Polygonal representation of a bull symbolizes the strength and upward momentum of a bull market.
The Emerging View

A new bull market cycle in Emerging Market equities

A decade of tech-driven US stock market outperformance has contrasted with tepid returns for Emerging Market indices. But past returns are not an indicator of future performance, and the drivers of markets over the next decade will be quite different...
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Positive credit rating momentum continues in EM

US Fed’s 50bp cut led to risk rally last week. Major escalation of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Dovish moves from Chinese central bank. Sri Lanka elect left-wing President, sparking concerns over IMF programme. Brazil hike 25bp...
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Brazil set to buck the trend and hike rates

60% probability of FOMC cutting 50bp now priced. More weak demand data from China. Javier Milei exercised veto power of a fiscal expansion policy in Argentina. Sri Lanka election outcome meaningful for IMF programme. IMF set to meet this month...
Sculpture of the Angel of Independence
Weekly investor research

Mexican judiciary reform clears another hurdle, but more remain

Soft US economic data set the tone for asset prices. Oil prices hit yearly lows and kept plunging. Frontier stocks continue to outperform, illustrating their diversification benefits. Chinese monetary intervention supporting yuan. Mexican judiciary...
Fed rate cuts & EM Equities
Video

WEBINAR: Fed rate cuts & EM Equities

Dhiren Shah (Lead Portfolio Manager of the Ashmore EM Equity Fund) and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research) discuss Fed rate cuts & EM Equities.
Beautiful shanghai yuyuan garden at night.
Weekly investor research

Strong month for EM debt ends in softer week

Upwards GDP revisions in US lead markets to reprice ‘bullish scenario’ of rate cuts and soft-landing. Strikes in Israel after nationwide protests against Netanyahu’s handling of hostage negotiations. China considers a plan to allow homeowners to...
City shot of Kuala Lumpur, including a view of the Petronas Towers.
Weekly investor research

More dovish Fed supporting EM returns

Jackson Hole pivot from Powell leaves 50bps September cut on the table. Brent crude rises back above USD80 on heightened geopolitical risk and Libyan supply constraints. China and Indonesia hold policy rates, signalling a pivot after the Fed’s first...
Balance concept - Red and white glossy balls on plank.
Weekly investor research

Risk off, risk on.

Very strong week for global equities, spurred by benign US retail sales and jobs data. MSCI ACWI is now just 1.7% away from July record high. Jokowi’s last budget kept an austere framework in Indonesia.The Thai parliament quickly appointed Paetongtarn...
Bear and Bull sitting at a table and chairs having a drink together, with rough seas in the background.
The Emerging View

Be greedy when others are fearful: But no rush

Warren Buffett’s mantra of “being greedy when others are fearful” has delivered good returns for faithful investors over the long term. Our analysis shows that asset allocators who buy Emerging Market (EM) assets during volatility spikes have delivered...
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Volatility is back

Markets in panic mode this morning after position unwinding…
The US Election’s impact on Emerging Markets
The Emerging View

The US Election’s impact on Emerging Markets

Since early June, Trump has been polling as the most likely candidate to win the 2024 presidency. After a disastrous July, Biden dropping out of the Presidential race is a boost for the Democrats. Kamala Harris is a better candidate and may gather...
Crowded scene
Weekly investor research

Crowded positions unwound as EM upgrades gather pace

Unwind of crowded positions dominated price action over the last two weeks. G-20 OECD leading indicator revisions show a weaker-than-expected cycle. Discussions for a ceasefire in Ukraine intensified. Heightened risk of conflict between Iran and...