Balanced scales: Left scale - Oversized USD/US equities. Right scale - Basket with gold bar, commodity, world currencies, EM skyline, bond coupon.
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Diversified asset allocation and US fiscal dominance

Volatile post-pandemic macro and US fiscal dominance risks, amid a historic H1-2025 Dollar selloff, are exposing the limits of passive, US-heavy indices. Investors should diversify toward markets less constrained by debt-shadowed central banks.

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Sweden and China two flags together. Textile cloth fabric texture.
Weekly investor research

China holds the cards in Stockholm

Europe & Japan face 15% US tariffs despite 'deals'. China may delay 12 Aug deadline by 90 days. India, S. Korea, Thailand talks ongoing. IMF backs Argentina. Brazil FDI weak. Mexico aids Pemex. Poland reshuffles. Türkiye upgraded. Nigeria, Zambia progress
Made in China. Cardboard boxes with text made in China and Chinese flag on the roller conveyor.
Weekly investor research

Chinese policymakers focusing on industrial overcapacity

CN supply boost stocks; Trump-Powell rumor fades. Strong US EPS. ID 19 % US tariff; TH zero tariff 90 % US goods; Moodys upgrades AR to Caa1; CO holds, peso top LatAm; UA confirms Svyrydenko PM; EG expands VAT; Fitch eyes ZM upgrade if 90% creditors agree

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Chinese and United States cargo containers
Weekly investor research

Habemus trade deal

US cut China tariffs to 30% for 90 days, sparking risk-on sentiment and Dollar rebound. Fed held rates steady. China eased policy further. India-Pakistan ceasefire. IMF lent $1.4bn to Pakistan. Peru cut rates. Ghana upgraded.
Temple at Jiufen Old Street in Taipei Taiwan
Weekly investor research

Taiwan dollar’s rally could signal further EMFX strength

US Q1 earnings strong; Q2 outlook weaker. US stagflation fears persist. Taiwan dollar rallies sharply. Oil falls on Saudi supply hike. Korean leader resigns for election. Colombia cuts rates; Brazil eyes tax reform. Simion leads Romania vote...
Aerial view of the Christ, The Redeemer Monument and the Corcovado Mountain in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The Emerging View

The ‘land of the future’ can’t wait much longer

Brazil’s vast natural resources have helped build a resilient economy, backed by a sophisticated financial system & a well-educated, hyperconnected population. However, persistent political volatility and inefficient public spending have hindered progress
The United States Capitol in Washington
Weekly investor research

Erratic US policy stance still driving asset prices

Trump eased on China tariffs; EM assets rallied. IMF cut 2025 global growth to 2.8%. Kazakhstan defies OPEC+. India may retaliate vs Pakistan. IMF suspended Colombia credit. Hungary faces media probe. SA cancels VAT hike. ECB hints at more cuts.
US bank note concept with a frowning Benjamin Franklin
Weekly investor research

The dollar keeps frowning

Trump postponed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days except against China. The US dollar index hit a six-month low as 10-year yields rose 50bps. Oil prices fell sharply to post-COVID lows, shifting the curve into contango. Zelenskyy claimed Chinese soldiers...
Outdoor diving board tower.
Weekly investor research

Trump says “tariff”. How high? Read on…

US tariff announcement due April 2. Trump frustrated over Ukraine talks. Japan resumes trade talks with S. Korea & China. China’s fertility rate drops. IMF’s $20bn aid for Argentina. Bolsonaro faces trial. Ghana’s debt falls. Le Pen guilty of embezzlement
Istanbul, the capital of Türkiye.
Weekly investor research

Türkiye’s political shenanigans are back

US tariff uncertainty persists but recent news was calmer. Early investor rotation from US after Germany’s policy shift. Türkiye intervened in TRY post-political shock. Argentina posts surplus, Brazil hikes 100bps. Colombia swaps finance minister.
City of Hamburg with river Elbe and Harbour, Germany
The Emerging View

Germany’s historic fiscal shift: The impact on emerging markets

Seismic US policy shifts have been advancing political and policy changes across the world in response. We offer an overview of the global macro context behind Germany’s historic fiscal reform, and the impact it can have on emerging markets (EM).
China restaurants and night markets illuminated in crowded Beijing streets
Weekly investor research

EM assets resilient as US stocks enter technical correction

US stocks in correction; Bessent unfazed. ECB: Uncertainty higher than Covid. US, Ukraine propose 30-day ceasefire; Russia talks soon. Anti-authoritarian protests in E. Europe. China plans stimulus. Mexico delays tariff retaliation to Apr 2.
AI concept - Tariff and geopolitics driving global macro
Weekly investor research

Tariff and geopolitics driving global macro

EM assets held up in February despite tariffs and geopolitics. Ukraine ceasefire odds rose as US-EU tensions drove change. India posted strong fiscal data; Malaysia advanced reforms, Indonesia faced doubts. Argentina tightened policy, Mexico reformed...
The Great Wall of China.
Weekly investor research

EM equity outperformance accelerates

EM stocks outperformed, led by China. Germany's coalition lacks a 2/3 majority. Qatar & Kuwait exit EMBI GD; LATAM gains. Zelenskyy open to stepping down. Korea & Taiwan exports signal downturn. Bolsonaro accused of coup. SA delays budget announcement.
Colourful spices
Market Commentary

Unlocking the potential of frontier market debt

Traditional EM indices, such as the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified (EMBI GD), provide great yield enhancement for global fixed income portfolios. However, the high average duration of this index exposes it to volatility from global risk factors.