Balanced scales: Left scale - Oversized USD/US equities. Right scale - Basket with gold bar, commodity, world currencies, EM skyline, bond coupon.
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Diversified asset allocation and US fiscal dominance

Volatile post-pandemic macro and US fiscal dominance risks, amid a historic H1-2025 Dollar selloff, are exposing the limits of passive, US-heavy indices. Investors should diversify toward markets less constrained by debt-shadowed central banks.

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Weekly investor research

China holds the cards in Stockholm

Europe & Japan face 15% US tariffs despite 'deals'. China may delay 12 Aug deadline by 90 days. India, S. Korea, Thailand talks ongoing. IMF backs Argentina. Brazil FDI weak. Mexico aids Pemex. Poland reshuffles. Türkiye upgraded. Nigeria, Zambia progress
Made in China. Cardboard boxes with text made in China and Chinese flag on the roller conveyor.
Weekly investor research

Chinese policymakers focusing on industrial overcapacity

CN supply boost stocks; Trump-Powell rumor fades. Strong US EPS. ID 19 % US tariff; TH zero tariff 90 % US goods; Moodys upgrades AR to Caa1; CO holds, peso top LatAm; UA confirms Svyrydenko PM; EG expands VAT; Fitch eyes ZM upgrade if 90% creditors agree

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Beautiful shanghai yuyuan garden at night.
Weekly investor research

Strong month for EM debt ends in softer week

Upwards GDP revisions in US lead markets to reprice ‘bullish scenario’ of rate cuts and soft-landing. Strikes in Israel after nationwide protests against Netanyahu’s handling of hostage negotiations. China considers a plan to allow homeowners to...
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Weekly investor research

More dovish Fed supporting EM returns

Jackson Hole pivot from Powell leaves 50bps September cut on the table. Brent crude rises back above USD80 on heightened geopolitical risk and Libyan supply constraints. China and Indonesia hold policy rates, signalling a pivot after the Fed’s first...
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Weekly investor research

Risk off, risk on.

Very strong week for global equities, spurred by benign US retail sales and jobs data. MSCI ACWI is now just 1.7% away from July record high. Jokowi’s last budget kept an austere framework in Indonesia.The Thai parliament quickly appointed Paetongtarn...
Bear and Bull sitting at a table and chairs having a drink together, with rough seas in the background.
The Emerging View

Be greedy when others are fearful: But no rush

Warren Buffett’s mantra of “being greedy when others are fearful” has delivered good returns for faithful investors over the long term. Our analysis shows that asset allocators who buy Emerging Market (EM) assets during volatility spikes have delivered...
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Volatility is back

Markets in panic mode this morning after position unwinding…
The US Election’s impact on Emerging Markets
The Emerging View

The US Election’s impact on Emerging Markets

Since early June, Trump has been polling as the most likely candidate to win the 2024 presidency. After a disastrous July, Biden dropping out of the Presidential race is a boost for the Democrats. Kamala Harris is a better candidate and may gather...
Crowded scene
Weekly investor research

Crowded positions unwound as EM upgrades gather pace

Unwind of crowded positions dominated price action over the last two weeks. G-20 OECD leading indicator revisions show a weaker-than-expected cycle. Discussions for a ceasefire in Ukraine intensified. Heightened risk of conflict between Iran and...
Money Pile $100 US dollar bills
Weekly investor research

Softening US data weighs on Dollar, buoying EM assets.

Trump shooting changes the dynamics, but not the trends, of the US presidential race. EM assets outperformed last week, buoyed by a weaker Dollar. China further restricted short selling as data weakened ahead of the Third Plenum. South Korea discussed...
National flags
Weekly investor research

Encouraging EM stories, turbulent Western politics.

US Treasuries rally despite ‘Trump premium’ post-debate. In the UK, Labour won a ‘loveless’ landslide. Far-right tide stemmed in France as left-wing coalition won most votes. Purchasing Managers Indices softened further in Europe, resilient in EM Asia
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Weekly investor research

Amuse-bouche

The US Presidential debate and the first round of the French general elections are just starters for the political trends impacting the west. In contrast, the President of South Africa appointed its national unity government, which is likely to lead to...
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The Emerging View

The untold story of improving EM fundamentals

Since the Covid shock, high global inflation, aggressive US fiscal expansion and a strong dollar have created a challenging environment for Emerging Market (EM) countries.
Businessman looking at three interlocking globes.
Weekly investor research

Political uncertainties from DM countries in focus

Geopolitical uncertainties abound after G-10 central banks start a tentative easing cycle. The US and global economies remain very imbalanced. China announced a monetary policy framework overhaul. Argentina delivered on fiscal consolidation and reforms…
Parliament, South Africa
Live at the Sub-ICs

Elections in South Africa: A new GNU

It’s been exactly 30 years since then-President Nelson Mandela enabled South Africa’s transition from an apartheid white-minority government to a democratically-elected government by bringing several political parties together to form a...
AI Generated - An analyst diligently investing based on economic data and ignoring noise from poor forecasts.
Weekly investor research

Lower inflation is the signal, random dots on a chart is noise.

Global stock volatility increased due to the French snap elections, the Fed’s hawkish tone, and deteriorating economic data. EM stocks were supported by Asia. Global bond yields declined after lower US inflation data. The EU announced tariffs on...